Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi dominates at home, Dune hits it big internationally
September 19, 2021
With this weekend’s two new wide releases both failing to find an audience, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will cruise to victory again at the domestic box office. The Marvel movie will rack up another $21.7 million, taking it to $176.9 million in total in North America. With a new total of $143.7 million internationally, it now has $320.6 million worldwide. Several international markets are being dominated by early releases of Dune, which is opening with $36.8 million in 24 markets on 7,819 screens this weekend, and will top the chart in virtually all of them.
Warner Bros. report that Dune’s performance is 4% ahead of Tenet, 33% ahead of Black Widow, 52% better than Blade Runner 2049, 58% ahead of Shang-Chi, and 80% ahead of Godzilla vs. Kong in comparable markets. Those markets are mostly concentrated in Europe so far, but it’s also doing well in Hong Kong and Singapore.
The top markets so far are Russia with $7.6 million this weekend and a shot at an all-time record September opening there; France with $7.5 million; Germany with $4.9 million; Italy with $2.6 million; and Spain with $2.4 million. Additional territory totals to date include the Netherlands at $1.4 million; Ukraine and Taiwan with $1.2 million each; $1.1 million in Hong Kong and Denmark; $1.0 million in Sweden, and $979,000 in Norway.
The film will earn $3.6 million from 142 IMAX screens, smashing pandemic-era records in its first weekend. Its $25,000/screen average is excellent at any time, and it was stellar in Denmark, with a $93,000/screen IMAX average; $90,000 in Norway; $80,000 in Sweden, and $54,000 in Hong Kong.
More good news for Dune is that it will get a theatrical release in China, scheduled for October 22.
The domestic theatrical results are disappointing this weekend, with Shang-Chi really the only bright spot (unless you consider Free Guy still sitting in second in its sixth weekend good news, which I guess it is for Disney). New releases Cry Macho and CopShop are both posting disappointing results well below what our model thinks they should have done. For Cry Macho, a simultaneous release on HBO Max is the obvious scapegoat, but the performance of CopShop suggests that the poor result for each film is as much down to lack of audience enthusiasm for these films.
The weakness of the new releases is dragging the overall market down, and it’ll end around 23% below last weekend’s total. The wide expansion of The Eyes of Tammy Faye and the arrival of Dear Evan Hansen might help things a little next weekend, but we’re really waiting for October to arrive before things really pick up again.
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Dune, Dear Evan Hansen, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Eyes of Tammy Faye