Weekend estimates: Honest Thief wins weekend with $3.7 million

October 18, 2020

Honest Thief

Honest Thief will top the domestic box office this weekend with a $3.7 million opening that is in line with expectations, and provides more evidence that the theatrical business is at least stable in the United States. Relatively good numbers for the re-release of The Nightmare Before Christmas bolster that argument, although 2 Hearts is underperforming hopes. Overall, it’s a story of two steps forward, one step back.

Honest Thief is almost a model example of the kind of movie that was expected to lead the recovery of the theatrical market. It has broad appeal, slightly skewed towards the 25-and-under demographic, and stars Liam Neeson, who is perhaps the most reliable star in mid-budget thrillers in the last decade. Its opening is close to our model’s $4.4 million prediction, and closer than it might look, in fact, because it opened in Canada last weekend. If one adjusts for that, the films “real” opening is around $4 million. The one disappointment is that it’s almost exactly the same as what Unhinged earned on its opening weekend back in August. That film perhaps had slightly bigger buzz, since it was the first post-pandemic wide release. But the most reasonable conclusion is that the market is treading water for now.

Likewise, while a $1.3 million debut for The Nightmare Before Christmas is solid, it’s somewhat behind the $1.9 million earned by Hocus Pocus when it was re-released two weeks ago. There’s a little more competition for Halloween-themed family nostalgia now, which probably explains the difference.

The one genuine disappointment this weekend is 2 Hearts, which will land in sixth place with $565,000. Its performance is reminiscent of The Broken Hearts Gallery, which picked up $1.1 million on its opening weekend (from slight more theaters). Data is still sparse, but this is further evidence that romantic movies aren’t an ideal fit for the COVID-19 world.





On the international front, Tenet earned another $6.6 million globally this weekend for a worldwide total of $333.9 million.

- Weekend studio estimates
- Weekend predictions
- Weekend theater counts

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Nightmare Before Christmas, Hocus Pocus, Coco, The New Mutants, The War with Grandpa, Honest Thief, Tenet, 2 Hearts, The Rental, The Broken Hearts Gallery, Unhinged, The Wretched, Robert De Niro, Liam Neeson