Weekend Predictions: A Slate of New Releases
August 28, 2020
For the first time since March, we have multiple wide releases this week, or to be more accurate, multiple semi-wide or wider releases. The New Mutants is the biggest new release of the week, playing in 2,412 theaters, and it is looking to top Unhinged’s $4 million result from last week. Bill and Ted: Face the Music is opening in more than 1,000 theaters, but it is also playing in PVOD, so its theatrical chances are more questionable. The third wide release of the week is The Personal History of David Copperfield, which has the best reviews, but it also has by far the quietest buzz.
The New Mutants began filming in 2017 and was originally planned to have a 2018 release date. That was pushed back with planned reshoots to make the film scarier. However, those reshoots never happened, because they were delayed so long that the cast looked too old to match the original footage. This might be the only film that was so deep into production hell that the disruption due to the pandemic seemed minor by comparison. Furthermore, because they never got the planned reshoots, the end result is a film that reportedly misses the mark. The reviews are overwhelmingly on the negative side, and, even though most reviews are not aggressively negative, that will still hurt its box office chances. The film should perform better than Unhinged did despite its reviews, but I’m not expecting it to hit $10 million. Even $5 million isn’t guaranteed. I’m going with $7 million, but as we’ve pointed out many, many times, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now.
Unhinged will have its second weekend in the US, and third in Canada, and its performance will be closely watched. If it manages to hold on well, that will be a sign that the theatrical business is on an upward trajectory. A collapse would suggest it only did as well as it did due to the lack of competition last weekend, and this means the box office might not be healthy enough to handle more than one wide release. It has a shot at earning more than $3 million, based on how well films have held on in international markets. Additionally, it did well enough to convince several hundred more theaters to book it, expanding from 1,823 to 2,331 locations, so that suggests it will hold on well. I don’t think it will get to $3 million, but I think it will get closer to $3 million than $2 million.
The next widest release is The Personal History of David Copperfield, which is playing in 1,360 theaters, which is barely more than half of the The New Mutants’ theater count. On the other hand, the film is earning great reviews, certainly strong enough to thrive in the art house circuit. Back to the original hand, films like this just haven’t worked during the pandemic. Furthermore, it is being released by Disney under the Searchlight label, which hasn’t had a hit since the takeover last year. I don’t think it will hit $1 million over the weekend, but it should come close.
The final wide release of the week is Bill and Ted: Face the Music, which is playing in 1,007 theaters, so it is more like semi-wide. Additionally, the film is already playing on PVOD / Ultra HD PVOD. Its reviews are strong and fans of the previous two films in the franchise will want to check it out. I think it will do much better on VOD, but at least a special effects action film will benefit from being seen on the big screen. I’m not even going to make a prediction here, as I have no idea what will happen. The closest similar release is Trolls World Tour, another film that played in theaters and on PVOD, but that’s only one data point and it isn’t even that close of a comparison.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The New Mutants, Bill & Ted Face the Music, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Unhinged, Bill & Ted