Friday Estimates: Onward is Off the Pace

March 7, 2020

Onward

It looks like March will start slower than anticipated, as Onward only managed $12.1 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $40 million during its opening weekend. If it does miss $40 million by any real degree, then it will be Pixar’s worst wide opening since Toy Story. Even if it avoids that fate, it is on pace to have the worst three-day opening for a Pixar film since The Good Dinosaur, and that film opened on a Wednesday. I’m not sure how to explain this other than look at the COVID-19 outbreak. Granted, its reviews are strong, but well below average for the studio. Likewise, its CinemaScore is a mere A minus, which isn’t great for a family film. It’s still good, but not great, certainly better than its box office numbers would indicate.

The Invisible Man earned $4.31 million on Friday, which is down 57% from its opening Friday, which is a better than average hold for a horror film. Universal is projecting a $14.3 million weekend based on this result.

The Way Back debuted in third place with $2.6 million. The film’s reviews are fine, as is its B plus from CinemaScore, but I don’t expect great legs as a result of its word-of-mouth. On the other hand, it does have an older target demographic and that should help its legs. In fact, it could get to $8 million over the full weekend, which is better than expected. It still isn’t good for a film that reportedly cost $21 million to make, but it isn’t a disaster either.

The Call of the Wild landed in fourth place on Friday with $1.84 million. This is close enough to Sonic the Hedgehog, which earned $1.78 million on Friday, that the two films could switch places over the full weekend.

Finally, Emma. landed in sixth place during its first day of wide expansion with $1.67 million, pushing its running tally to $3.56 million so far.

- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- Weekend Predictions: Onward and Upward
- Thursday Night Previews: Onward Begins Behind Sonic’s Speedy Pace
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Onward, The Call of the Wild, Sonic The Hedgehog, The Invisible Man, Emma., The Way Back