Weekend Predictions: Onward and Upward?

March 6, 2020

Onward

The first weekend of March should be much better than the last weekend of February was, as Onward is widely expected to be a much bigger hit than The Invisible Man was. Unfortunately, it is also widely expected to not be enough to compete with what Captain Marvel made this weekend last year. In fact, it isn’t expected to make as much during its opening weekend as Captain Marvel made during its opening day. 2020 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.

Onward is the latest film from Pixar to hit theaters. The film’s reviews are great, but not as great as we’ve come to expect from Pixar. Furthermore, the buzz is being drowned out by new reports of the Coronavirus, which has become a large enough issue to potentially hurt box office numbers stateside. (It has already done a lot of damage internationally.) Expectations have gone from a $60 million opening to perhaps struggling to reach $40 million. On the other hand, don’t worry about Disney, because I’m sure Disney Plus is raking in the money as people decide to stay home and stream some Pixar movies instead.

The Invisible Man opened a little faster than anticipated and its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore success long legs. That said, it is still a horror movie and those tend to be front-loaded, so a greater than 50% drop-off to $14 million or less seems likely. I’m going with $13 million, but that would have been an okay start, given the film’s $7 million production budget. It will be more than enough to ensure a profit relatively soon.

I think Sonic the Hedgehog will land in third place with $8 million, but it could have to settle for fourth. It is a family film, so that should help its legs, but it is also dealing with direct competition from Onward. Even if the film falls to $7 million, it is already a financial success, so Paramount will be happy.

The Way Back is a story of redemption set in the world of high school basketball. The film’s reviews look good at first glance, but its Tomatometer Score is a lot higher than its average score. It’s another case were the vast majority of critics liked the movie, but few loved it. Furthermore, the buzz is not good and with real life issues to deal with, fewer people are interested in going out to the movies. Tracking has the film earning between $6 million and $10 million during the weekend, but I think the lower end is more likely, as this is not a film you need to see in theaters to enjoy and I think people are going to be avoiding the theaters.

The Call of the Wild should round out the top five with between $6 million and $7 million over the weekend. The film is doing better than most live-action family films manage, but it cost way too much to make.

Emma. is expanding into 1,500 theaters this weekend and that might be enough to earn a spot in the top five with just over $6 million. I think it will have to settle for sixth place with just under $5 million. That’s still a reasonably good result for a film like this.

- Theater Counts

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Onward, The Call of the Wild, Sonic The Hedgehog, The Invisible Man, Emma., The Way Back