Weekend Estimates: Sonic Outlasts the Sled Dog

February 23, 2020

Sonic the Hedgehog

Sonic the Hedgehog will remain in first place over the full weekend, albeit with a weaker-than-predicted sophomore stint of $26.3 million. That said, the film already has $106.6 million after just two weeks of release, which is likely more than Paramount thought it would earn in total. It is still too early to tell where the film will finish internationally, but there is also reasons to be optimistic there, as it has nearly $100 million in just two weeks of release, including $38.3 million in 56 markets this weekend. This includes a first place opening in Russia with $6.3 million on 1,800 screens, which is an impressive debut for that market and this time of year.

The Call of the Wild managed second place with $24.82 million, which would normally be a strong start for a live-action family film, except the movie cost $125 million to make. That’s simply too much money to spend on a film like this and it was destined to lose money as a result. Although, given its demographics, calling it a family film might not be 100% accurate, as only 32% of the audience were families and 68% were general audiences. To put this into perspective, 32% of the audience were 45 years old or older. This does bode well for the film’s legs, as older moviegoers are far less likely to rush out to see a film opening weekend. Additionally, its reviews and its A-minus rating from CinemaScore should help, at least a little. Interestingly, the audience was split 50/50 between men and women, while it was 67% Caucasian, which is a less surprising result. Internationally, the film opened with $15.4 million in 40 markets and given the relative size of the markets, this is about half of what it earned here, maybe a little more. It did well in France with $2.6 million, but struggled in the U.K. with $1.9 million. It flat out bombed in Germany ($700,000) and Australia ($600,000). At this point, its goal is to match its $125 million production budget worldwide in order to save face. And yes, I’ve been forced to use that phrase so often that it is annoying me every time I have to type it out.

Birds of Prey is falling faster than anticipated, and will earn an estimated $7.01 million over the weekend for a total of $72.53 million after three weeks of release. A 59% decline at this point in its run is going to cost it a lot of theaters next weekend and that’s going to shorten its legs even more. It is doing better internationally with $10.0 million on 10,184 screens in 78 markets for totals of $101.2 million internationally and $173.7 million worldwide. The film could break even, eventually, depending on how much its advertising campaign cost and how well it does on the home market.

Brahms: The Boy II is earning fourth place according to estimates, but with an opening weekend of just $5.9 million, it is too close to call. The audience skewed younger female with 55% of the audience being women and 59% being under 25 years old; 35% were both. Ethnically, there was a more even divide with Caucasians only making up 44% of the audience, while Hispanics (23%); African Americans (18%); and Asian/Other (15%) split the remaining portion of the audiences relatively evenly. Look for short legs, as the movie is earning some of the worst reviews of the year so far and its C minus from CinemaScore isn’t helping either. It is way too early to tell what will happen to the film internationally, but it only has $2.2 million so far, so I’m not expecting much.

Bad Boys for Life is currently rounding out the top five with $5.86 million, but that is so close to Brahms: The Boy II that I wouldn’t be surprised if it climbs ahead of that film in the end. Regardless, the movie has $191.18 million according to estimates and it will get to $200 million domestically. It already has $200 million internationally, according to estimates, including $8.1 million on 4,600 screens in 60 markets. I suspect it will slip below $200 million when the final numbers come in, but that just means it will take an extra day to get to that level. No big deal.

Emma is earning an average of $46,000 in five theaters during its limited release debut, which strongly suggests room to grow. Surprisingly, Seberg was in second place with an average of $20,162 in three theaters.

- Weekend Box Office Chart
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- Thursday Night Previews: Wild has a Tame Debut
- Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Answer the Call?
- Theater Counts

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Bad Boys For Life, The Call of the Wild, Sonic The Hedgehog, Seberg, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), Brahms: The Boy II, Emma.