Friday Estimates: Frozen Begins to Thaw, Playmobil Nowhere to be Found

December 7, 2019

Frozen II

As expected, Frozen II earned first place on the Friday box office chart. However, the film fell further than anticipated, earning $7.84 million—off 77% from last Friday. That was a holiday, so obviously it will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but projections have the film earning about $36 million compared to our $38 million prediction. This is close enough that I’m satisfied with the result and it is more than enough to keep it in wide release until after the new year.

Knives Out matched expectations nearly perfectly with a Friday haul of $4.14 million and projections that have it earning $14 million over the weekend. With a sophomore stint haul of this magnitude, theater owners won’t be looking to drop the film in massive numbers until after the Christmas Break. Granted, competition will push the film to smaller screens in megaplexes, but it still has a secure path to $100 million domestically.

Queen and Slim also matched expectations by earning third place with $1.93 million on Friday, down just 55% from last Friday. Slightly weaker competition means it should earn third place over the weekend with between $6 million and $7 million and doing so will go a long way to keeping the film in theaters during the Christmas break.

Ford v Ferrari was right behind with $1.87 million on Friday, again putting it on pace for between $6 million and $7 million over the weekend. The film should get to $100 million domestically over the Christmas break.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is struggling somewhat with $1.55 million on Friday, putting it on pace for between $5 million and $6 million over the weekend. It should still be in theaters in the New Year, but it might not be truly wide by the time Christmas arrives.

This leaves Dark Waters is sixth place with $1.39 million on Friday and projections having it earning $4 million over the full weekend. That’s right on the razor’s edge of the Mendoza Line. This is too bad, as its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are a lot better than its box office numbers.

And then there’s Playmobil. I first read the film earned significantly less than $1 million on Friday and was disappointed, but not surprised. Then I realized that was the weekend projection and not Friday’s estimate. The film missed the top ten with a mere $167,000 on Friday. To put this into perspective, Jojo Rabbit made almost as much, despite playing in less than a quarter as many theaters and despite playing in theaters for more than a month. Add in the film’s reviews and its mere B minus from CinemaScore and it will be out of theaters as soon as theater owners are contractually able to drop it.

- Weekend Predictions
- Friday Box Office Chart

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Frozen II, PLAYMOBIL, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Jojo Rabbit, Ford v. Ferrari, Queen & Slim, Dark Waters, Knives Out