Weekend Estimates: Thanksgiving Stuffs itself on New Releases and Leftovers
December 1, 2019
Frozen II’s weekend haul wasn’t quite up to the level it was during the week, but it was still impressive. In fact, it is matching our prediction nearly perfectly with $85.25 million, giving it $123.75 million over five days and a running tally of $287.57 million. It will break the three-day and the five-day Thanksgiving records, topping the second place film, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, by substantial margins. Frozen II will have no trouble getting to $300 million shortly, while topping $400 million is practically assured at this point. Meanwhile, it is adding $163.8 million in 45 markets internationally for totals of $451.0 million internationally and $738.6 million worldwide. The film had a trio of first-place openings in major markets this past weekend, including Russia with $13.7 million, which Disney is reporting as the best opening for an animated film in that market. In Italy, it earned $7.7 million over the weekend and $8.6 million including previews, which is the best for a Disney animated film. It wasn’t as impressive in Australia with an opening of $6.6 million, but this was still 59% more than the first Frozen opened with in that market. At this point, the film has fully paid for its production budget, and while it likely cost between $150 million and $200 million to advertise, it should last in theaters long enough to cover that as well. That’s assuming the film had no more markets to open in, which isn’t the case. It has yet to open in Brazil and some smaller markets, so it should get a boost at the box office over the next month and a bit.
Knives Out opened with $27.02 million over the three-day weekend, which would have been within a rounding error of our $28 million five-day prediction. It has pulled in $41.7 million over five days, which is amazing for a film that cost $40 million to make. Additionally, the film earned $28.3 million internationally for a worldwide debut of $70.0 million. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are clearly having a positive impact at the box office and getting to $100 million domestically. While it is too soon to tell were it will land internationally, all signs point to a sizable profit for Lionsgate.
Ford v Ferrari is earning third place with an estimated $13.22 million / $19.00 million Thanksgiving haul, pushing its running tally to $81.00 million. The film is also earning $10.2 million in 48 markets internationally for totals of $62.3 million internationally and $143.3 million worldwide. This is already more than it cost to make and the film has yet to open in South Korea, Japan, and possible China. Still no word on a release date in that last market. Assuming it continues to do this well, it should top $250 million internationally and break even relatively early in its home market run.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is earning fourth place with $11.80 million / $17.27 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $34.31 million. Like every film in the top five, it topped expectations.
Queen and Slim is opening in fifth place with $11.68 million / $15.79 million over the Thanksgiving weekend. It is earning more over three days than many thought it would earn over five. Furthermore, its theater average is high enough to warrant expansion, while its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest long legs. How far it will go depends heavily on how long it can last in theaters. The Christmas break would obviously give it a boost, but there’s a lot of competition for limited screens and this film could get pushed out before then. We will have to wait and see.
The only limited release with estimates so far is 63 Up, the latest in the 7 Up franchise. This film is opening with an estimated $15,250 / $20,015 in one theater over the weekend.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Frozen II, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ford v. Ferrari, Queen & Slim, Knives Out, 63 Up, 7 Up