Weekend Predictions: Will Audiences be Thankful this Thanksgiving?

November 27, 2019

Frozen II

There are two wide releases this Thanksgiving, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Unfortunately, only one of those two films, Knives Out, is expected to make any real impact at the box office. Queen and Slim is just hoping to reach the top five. That said, both films will be crushed by Frozen II, which broke records last weekend and it is expected to have a strong hold during the holidays. This weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving and the biggest new release was The Possession of Hannah Grace. Queen and Slim should top that at the box office. In fact, Knives Out might top Ralph Breaks the Internet’s sophomore stint, so even without Frozen II, the weekend would be looking good. 2019 might do well enough on the year-over-year competition that it will save November and give the year a real shot at ending on a strong note.

Frozen II opened with just over $130 million last weekend and its legs so far should be a good omen for what’s going to happen next. Granted, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are not up to the results the first Frozen earned, while sequels tend to start faster and fall quicker, but I’m still optimistic about the movie’s chances. On the high end, it could fall just 25% over the three-day weekend, meaning it would nearly match its opening weekend over the five-day result. That’s asking a lot, but it is possible. On the low end, it will fall more than 25% when you compare its five-day weekend to its opening three-day weekend. The film already set more records, earning the best November Monday and Tuesday, so I think the high end is more likely at this point. I’m going with $85 million over the three-day weekend, which would give the film well over $100 million over the five-day weekend and it will blow past $250 million in the process.

Knives Out earned $1.6 million during its previews on Tuesday for total previews of $3.69 million. I have high hopes that it will substantially improve over the rest of the weekend for a number of reasons. The film’s critical reception so far has been nothing short of award-worthy, although it is the wrong genre to win awards. The film also has no direct competition with the only other two comedies in the top ten being a family film and a seasonal rom com. There are some who think the film will crack $30 million over the five-day weekend and I can see where they are coming from. I’m not quite that bullish, but I think it will come close with $28 million over the five-day weekend, including $18 million from Friday through Sunday.

Both Ford v Ferrari and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood are looking for $13 million over the next five days, with the former having a slight advantage. If Ford v Ferrari can match this number, then it will be on pace to top $100 million domestically with ease, thanks to the holidays, and should remain in theaters until the new year arrives A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood will need to win awards if it is to get to the century mark.

Queen and Slim and Midway should be in a close race for fifth place. Queen and Slim didn’t have previews last night, so it is a little harder to judge its opening weekend. Its reviews are certainly an asset, as is the lack of direct competition. On the other hand, the buzz is really quiet and while I think the film will start in fifth place on Wednesday, it won’t stay there for long, earning just under $9 million over the next five days. This will leave Midway in fifth place with just over $9 million over the same period.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Frozen II, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Midway, Ford v. Ferrari, Queen & Slim, Last Christmas, Knives Out, Playing with Fire