Friday Estimates: Frozen II Sets Fire to the Record Book
November 23, 2019
As expected, Frozen II started with a record-breaking Friday, as the film pulled in $41.8 million during its opening day, the best day in November for an animated film. Combine this start with its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore and the film should have decent legs. The audience reaction is a little disappointing, so I think our prediction of $125 million is unlikely. It will come close enough to become a huge hit domestically. In fact, it is on pace to smash the November 3-day weekend for an animated film by the middle of Saturday and the five-day Thanksgiving weekend for any film by the middle of Sunday, and it isn’t even Thanksgiving. Those records are currently held by The Incredibles ($70.5 million) and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($109.9 million). The Incredibles record will obviously be broken, but we’ll have to wait until next week to see what Thanksgiving looks like. Frozen II is the fastest-starting November animated release of all time, but I don’t think it will have the legs to catch Frozen’s domestic total, unless it is able to remain in saturation level wide release until the New Year.
On the other hand, Frozen II is doing better internationally, topping Frozen in most markets with a two-day total of $57.8 million. In fact, it had the biggest opening day for a Disney animated film in China with $10.64 million and did the same in the U.K., if you exclude Pixar films. It was behind only Toy Story 4 in Japan for all Western animated films, although we don’t have an actual number yet. Expect a lot more details, and several more records, when the weekend estimates come out tomorrow.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood opened in second place, but it won’t stay there fore long, as Ford v Ferrari is right behind it at $4.55 million to $4.5 million. This film’s reviews are award-worthy, but strangely CinemaScore hasn’t released its score yet. Given its target audience, it should have a healthy internal multiplier, but it won’t catch our $18 million prediction.
Ford v Ferrari will have an even better multiplier, because it is a holdover, turning its $4.5 million Friday into a $16 million weekend haul. This is a little lower than anticipated, but nothing to really worry about.
On the other hand, if you want to start worrying about 21 Bridges, now is the time. The film only managed $3.33 million during its fourth-place debut. Additionally, it has the weakest reviews and just a B plus from CinemaScore, so it will have the shortest legs of the three wide releases this week. Look for a $9 million opening weekend.
Midway and Playing with Fire will be in a close race for fifth place. Midway has a substantial lead on Friday $1.38 million to $1.07 million, but Playing with Fire is a family film, so it should bounce back a lot more on Saturday. Both films are on pace for just under $5 million with Midway having a slight advantage over the full weekend.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Frozen II, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Midway, Ford v. Ferrari, 21 Bridges, Playing with Fire