Weekend Predictions: Can Dora find Box Office Gold?

August 8, 2019

Dora and the Lost City of Gold

There are five wide or semi-wide releases coming out this weekend, which is just too many and practically guarantees at least one of them will flop at the box office. Of these films, Dora and the Lost City of Gold is the only one expected to compete for first place, while Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark should do well as a low-budget horror movie. Unfortunately, The Kitchen and The Art of Racing in the Rain are not connecting with critics and that will likely keep them out of the top five. Finally, Brian Banks is opening in just 1,240 theaters and that could keep it out of the top ten. This weekend last year, The Meg opened with $45 million. No film playing this weekend will match that and I don’t think this year’s depth is going to compensate, meaning we are going to lose in the year-over-year competition yet again.

Good news: Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw shouldn’t have too much trouble repeating as the box office champion this weekend. Bad news: it could fall more than 60% and it already missed expectations during its opening weekend, so a sharp drop is so much worse. Even high end expectations have the film falling to just under $30 million during its sophomore stint and since there is no direct competition, this end is a little more likely. On the low end, it falls to second place with about $24 million. I’m going with $28 million, which will keep it on pace for about $150 million domestically. It should earn that much in China alone and its international numbers will save its financial future.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold could earn first place, if it over-performs and Hobbs and Shaw underperforms. The film is earning good, but not great reviews. Meanwhile, it has no direct competition coming out this weekend and I think nearly everyone who wanted to see The Lion King has already seen it, so the film should have a relatively good opening. It is tracking at between $15 million and $25 million, but that higher number relies on stronger than expected crossover appeal. I don’t think it will get there, but I do think the higher end is more likely than the lower end and I’m going with $22 million.

The Lion King should be very close behind with $21 million keeping it on pace for $500 million domestically. These live-action Disney remakes will continue for several years to come, at the very least. They could continue for another decade on Disney+, the new streaming service that debuts in November.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark could earn as much as $20 million during its opening weekend; however, as we’ve seen so many times this summer, horror films usually struggle to get to that $20 million mark. Even Annabelle Comes Home barely got there. This film’s reviews should help, but there have been so many horror films released this summer that the market might be oversaturated resulting in a $12 million opening weekend. I think $15 million is more likely.

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood will be next, likely with $11 million. This might be enough to get to $100 million by the end of the weekend. If not, it will get there on Monday.

The Kitchen is a typical August release, in that its reviews are awful. The three leading ladies just can’t do enough with a substandard script. Furthermore, there’s are just too many movies opening this weekend for all of them to find an audience and this one looks likely to fall between the cracks with under $10 million.

The Art of Racing in the Rain is also dealing with weak reviews, but is also has to deal with an apathetic distributor. The film was made by Fox before they were bought out and I don’t think Disney really cares if it lives or dies at the box office. The buzz certainly suggests the latter is more likely. Look for an opening of $8 million this weekend.

Brian Banks is earning overall positive reviews, barely, but it is opening in just 1,240 theaters. Additionally, the buzz suggests is will miss the Mendoza Line, perhaps by a large enough margin to miss the top ten. I’m not that pessimistic, but I think it will only manage $2 million and tenth place.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lion King, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, The Kitchen, The Art of Racing in the Rain, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Brian Banks, Annabelle Comes Home