Weekend Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw’s International Numbers Save Weekend Haul
August 4, 2019
Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw missed even the low end of predictions with an estimated opening weekend of just $60.8 million. This is not a good start for a film that cost $200 million to make. Additionally, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore do not suggest long enough legs to make up for this opening. Fortunately, the film is doing a lot better internationally with an estimated opening of $120 million in 63 markets. Furthermore, this number doesn’t include China, because the film doesn’t open there until the end of the month. (It has also yet to open in France, Italy, and Japan, but it will earn more in China than those three markets combined.) The film is opening well behind The Fate of the Furious in most markets, including Russia where it managed $8.20 million on 1,766 screens, compared to $14.26 million on 1,470 screens for the previous film. It was even worse in the U.K. at $7.85 million in 610 theaters vs. $17.58 million on 572. Overall, the film is more in line with Fast Five than the other recent films in the franchise. This is still enough to earn a profit, especially if it does well in China, but the spin-off won’t replace the main films in the Fast and the Furious franchise like I thought it had a chance of doing.
It looks like The Lion King will match expectations perfectly, as it is earning an estimated $38.25 million over the weekend. This is still a 50% decline, which is really sharp for a family film. That said, it is more than enough to push the film over $400 million domestically, while it had already topped $1 billion worldwide, so Disney has to be happy with this result so far. The film is earning an estimated $72.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $764.9 million internationally and $1.196 billion worldwide. Additionally, it has yet to open in Japan and Italy, so it isn’t done just yet.
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood’s weekend estimate it $20.03 million, which is within a rounding error of our prediction. The film will get to $100 million domestically, but it will likely be pushed out of the top five before then. As for its international numbers, it has yet to open in any major market and won’t until this weekend when it debuts in Russia. If it can find an audience internationally, then it will be a financial hit. Otherwise, its $90 million production budget could be a serious issue.
Spider-Man: Far From Home is likely earning fourth place with an estimated $7.76 million over the weekend for a total of $360.33 million after a month of release. It is earning a little more than that internationally at $9.5 million for totals of $715 million internationally and $1.08 billion worldwide. The M.C.U. is less than $10 million away from $5 billion worldwide this year and it will get there, likely before next weekend begins.
Toy Story 4 is right behind with an estimated $7.15 million over the weekend for a total of $410.10 million after seven weeks of release. Its trailing legs have really helped the film’s box office grow and because of this, it will reach $1 billion worldwide.
There were a number of limited releases that are doing well on the theater average chart this weekend, including Luce ($26,583); The Nightingale ($20,041); and Jay Myself ($19,088). However, the limited release that was the most impressive was The Farewell, which is earning seventh place during its fourth week of release with $2.42 million in 409 theaters.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Nightingale, The Lion King, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Luce, Jay Myself, The Farewell, Fast and the Furious, Marvel Cinematic Universe