2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actress

February 14, 2019

The Wife

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, ending with Best Lead Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite without an obvious runner up.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)

Best Lead Actress

Yalitza Aparicio for Roma
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: None
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Foreign-language films rarely win Oscars outside of that one category. Additionally, Yalitza Aparicio doesn’t have an Awards Season history to fall back on. That said, Roma could be the big winner of the night and Yalitza Aparicio could be carried by the wave.

Glenn Close for The Wife
Tomatometer Score: 85% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG, and Independent Spirit Award
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe and SAG (One Pending)
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Six Oscars, Four Golden Globes, One BAFTA, and One SAG
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Glenn Close earned five Oscar nominations in the 1980s alone. However, she still hasn’t won an Oscar, or for that matter, any major award for her film work. (She does have several awards for her TV work.) She’s the overwhelming favorite to finally win an Oscar, but I hope people don’t dismiss it as a Career Achievement award.

Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: BAFTA
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Olivia Colman did win the BAFTA award; however, The Favourite is a British film, so she had home field advantage with the voters. She won’t have that at the Oscars, so she’s a long shot to win.

Lady Gaga for A Star is Born
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Lady Gaga has won many awards, mostly for her music, but also some for her TV acting. She might add an Oscar to that list, but not this year.

Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Tomatometer Score: 98% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscars, One Golden Globes, One BAFTA, and Two SAGs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Melissa McCarthy has won major awards for her acting, but only for her TV work so far. She could win an Oscar sometime in her career, but I think it will take a couple more losses to get there.

Conclusion: Glenn Close is the overwhelming favorite to win for The Wife. In fact, if she doesn’t win, it could be the biggest upset of the night.


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Filed under: Awards Season, A Star is Born, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Roma, The Favourite, The Wife, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, Melissa McCarthy, Lady Gaga, Yalitza Aparicio