Weekend Predictions: Do the New Releases Face Impossible Obstacle?
August 9, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this week. This includes Dog Days, which started on Wednesday. However, while it was released first, it is widely expected to be the last at the box office of the five wide releases. The Meg is widely expected to be the biggest new release of the week and it is the only film with a real shot at unseating Mission: Impossible—Fallout for top spot. I was expecting BlacKkKlansman to only open in limited release this week before trying to expand next week, but it is opening in 1,500 theaters giving it a real shot at a top five opening. Finally there’s Slender Man, a horror movie based on an internet meme that peaked years ago. It likely won’t be the worse box office performer of the weekend, but I’m not sure it will reach the top five. This weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation was the last blockbuster of summer opening with $35 million. No movie is going to match that this year. However, all three new releases made less than $50 million, while the four new releases could top that this weekend. I don’t think 2018 will win, but it should at least be close.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout will probably complete the threepeat with another box office win this weekend. It held on amazingly well last weekend and while The Meg is close to direct competition, it should have an even better hold this weekend. That gives it a shot at more than $22 million this weekend, possible $23 million. Most likely, it will be somewhere in-between.
The Meg is a movie about a killer shark, which is a genre that peaked in quality with Jaws, but has had some recent successes. However, those recent hits were lower budget films. The Meg cost $150 million to make. Or to be more pedantic about it, if reports are correct, it was $150 million on the screen, $130 million cost to the studio, due to tax breaks. There’s no way the film is going to match that domestically. On the high end, it will open in first place with about $25 million. On the low end, it won’t even get to $20 million. Unfortunately, I think the lower end is more likely and I’m going with a $21 million opening. Hopefully it will do better internationally.
Christopher Robin should place third this weekend. If it can fall 40% or less during its sophomore stint, then it will have a shot at $100 million domestically. That means, it needs close to $15 million over the weekend, which seems like a lot. It is not impossible, but I think just under $14 million is more likely. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
At the beginning of the month, I thought BlacKkKlansman would open in limited release this week and maybe expand wide next week. However, the studio, Focus Features, has split the difference and is opening the film semi-wide this week. The film’s reviews are, by far, the best out of the four new releases on this week’s list and the buzz is good enough to suggest a fourth place opening with $12 million.
Slender Man is a late summer horror release and there is some evidence movies like this can be hits. After all, this weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation opened with more than $35 million. However, Slender Man likely won’t make that much during its entire run. Its reviews are less than 20% positive and it isn’t part of a successful franchise. That said, it likely didn’t cost a lot to make, so if it earn $10 million over the weekend, it will be a financial success.
I was expecting Dog Days to earn about $5 million to $6 million over the weekend, but after its Wednesday debut, I’m not sure it will earn $5 million over its five-day opening. The film only managed $635,000. On the positive side, it was moved up to Wednesday not too long ago, so perhaps not enough people even knew it was already playing in theaters. Its reviews are close enough to the overall positive level that I’m not too worried about the effect it will have on ticket sales. Meanwhile, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it could see some growth over the next few days. Or it could collapse on Thursday and the stench of being a box office bomb could keep people away.
- The Meg Comparisons
- BlacKkKlansman Comparisons
- Slender Man Comparisons
- Dog Days Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, Slender Man, BlacKkKlansman, Dog Days