Weekend Predictions: How Badly will Infinity War Beat the New Releases?

May 3, 2018

Overboard

Last weekend, Infinity War destroyed the weekend record. This weekend, there are three new releases that are just hoping to not get embarrassed. Overboard is the biggest film in terms of buzz, but the buzz isn’t good, to be kind. Tully is the smallest film in terms of theater count, but its reviews are stellar and it has a shot at the top five. Bad Samaritan’s early reviews, are good, but its buzz is so quiet that it will likely bomb in theaters. This weekend last year, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with $146.51 million. There’s almost no chance 2018 will match last year’s performance. Thanks to Infinity War’s record-breaking opening, 2018 should be relatively close.

Infinity War had a record-breaking opening, its reviews are excellent, and the fan reaction seems to be even more positive. Furthermore, it has no real competition this weekend. It has a lot going for it. However, it is still a comicbook movie and these tend to have a strong Fanboy effect and falling less than 50% is nearly impossible, while falling 60% is common. For example, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 fell 55% during its sophomore stint. If Infinity War has the same hold, it will add $115 million during the coming weekend. I think that’s as good as it gets. It could also fall 60% to $103 million. I think the higher end is a little more likely than the lower end, so I’m going with a prediction of $111 million. This will push the film to fourth place in the MCU after just 10 days of release.

Overboard is a film that just seems like a mistake. Taking someone who can’t remember who they are and pretending they are your husband and then working them to the point of exhaustion is scummy. It doesn’t matter that they are a rich playboy. It would take an amazing screenplay to make it work. So far there are no reviews, so it is hard to tell if that happened. On the other hand, Eugenio Derbez has a solid drawing power and his more recent film pulled in $12 million during its opening weekend. I think this one will do about the same.

A Quiet Place will be next with about $7 million. It topped $150 million on Tuesday and will be at nearly $160 million by Sunday. This is stunning for a film that cost just $17 million to make.

I Feel Pretty should add another $5 million over the weekend to its running tally, which will reach about $39 million. The film has yet to really debut internationally, so it’s hard to tell how well it will do outside the United States. If it can just match its domestic box office numbers, then it will likely break even sometime during its home market run.

Tully is the latest film written by Diablo Cody and directed by Jason Reitman. The pair previously made Juno and Young Adult. This could help this film find an audience in theaters, while its reviews should help its legs going forward. However, it is only playing in 1,200 theaters and that’s an awkward number to debut in. It’s too large for a targeted ad campaign, but too few for the studio to spend big bucks advertising it. I think the star power will help it earn a spot in the top five with just under $5 million, but Rampage will be right behind hoping to take its place.

The final new release of the week is Bad Samaritan. Its reviews are good, but not great. Unfortunately, it needed great reviews to overcome its lack of buzz. There’s little hope this film will find an audience in theaters. On a positive note, it will be able to earn a spot in the top ten with just $2 million. It might get lucky and earn $3 million.

- Overboard Comparisons
- Tully Comparisons
- Bad Samaritan Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Overboard, Avengers: Infinity War, Rampage, A Quiet Place, Tully, I Feel Pretty, Bad Samaritan, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Eugenio Derbez, Jason Reitman, Diablo Cody