Friday Estimates: Justice Prevails on Friday with $38.8 Million, but the DCEU in Peril
November 18, 2017
As predicted, Justice League dominated the Friday box office chart, earning four times its nearest competitor. However, it only managed $38.8 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. In fact, tracking has been dropping and the film is now widely expected to open with less than $100 million over the weekend, making it the only film in the DCEU to fail to reach the century mark during its opening weekend. There are a number of reasons why this film is struggling. Firstly, except for Wonder Woman, no film in the franchise has earned good reviews and mainstream audiences may have given up on the franchise. Secondly, the troubled production meant a lot of people who were part of the target audience, but not hardcore D.C. Comics fans, are taking a wait-and-see approach here. Since its reviews are bad, these people are staying home. Its CinemaScore is just a B plus, so it won’t have great legs going forward. Finally, there’s Thor: Ragnarok. That film is proving to be stronger than expected competition, as it started faster and is holding up better than most similar films. I think Warner Bros. is going to have to rethink the entire DCEU before going forward. Aquaman is already in post-production and Wonder Woman 2 is definitely going forward. After that, I’m not sure what films will or will not be made.
Wonder opened in second place with $9.7 million. This is a much better than expected. Furthermore, its legs should be better than average, in part because its target demographic isn’t one to rush out to see a film on opening night. Additionally, its reviews are 80% positive and it earned a stunning A plus from CinemaScore. It has a slim shot at $30 million over the weekend, which would be nearly twice my prediction, but even if it doesn’t get there, the holidays could help it stick in theaters until the new year and it could become the biggest hit for Lionsgate this year.
Thor: Ragnarok was pushed into third place with $5.80 million. It’s going to need to really bounce back over the rest of the weekend to match my $25 million prediction. That said, the holidays should still help it hit $300 million domestically, although Disney might have to give it a small push in the end.
Murder on the Orient Express and Daddy’s Home 2 were neck-and-neck with $4.08 million and $3.9 million respectively. Both are holding on better than average, which is good news going into Thanksgiving.
The Star missed the top five with $2.8 million on Friday. It should have better than average legs for two reasons. The reviews weren’t great, but it earned a solid A from CinemaScore. It is also a faith-based and a family film and both of these films tend to have longer than average legs. It will still miss the top ten, but it won’t be a disaster.
As for limited releases, both Lady Bird ($740,000) and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri ($333,000) earned spots in the top ten. On the other hand, while Roman J. Israel, Esq. will earn more $10,000 on the theater average chart, it won’t do well enough to justify a truly wide expansion on the 22nd, especially with its mixed reviews.
- Justice League Comparisons
-5-News.jpg)
- Wonder Comparisons
- The Star Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Star, Justice League, Wonder, Thor: Ragnarok, Murder on the Orient Express, Daddy’s Home 2, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Roman J. Israel, Esq., Lady Bird, DC Extended Universe