Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man Misses Out, Trainwreck Breaks Out

July 19, 2015

Ant-Man

Perhaps we’re seeing the first signs of multiplex fatigue? In the midst of a buoyant Summer at the movies, Ant-Man will debut with around $58 million, according to Sunday estimates, about 10% below expectations, and well short of the $94 million earned by Guardians of the Galaxy this time last year. It’s a very good opening, to be sure, but the second slightly disappointing debut from the Marvel Cinematic Universe this year, after The Avengers: Age of Ultron’s $191 million opening weekend back in May. We’re talking disappointment of the level of seeing Babe Ruth only hit one home run in a game here, so we need to put things in perspective. It’s the twelfth straight $50 million-plus opening for the franchise in seven years—an unprecedented box office run.

Minions will come in second for the weekend with a shade over $50 million, a drop of 57% from its massive opening weekend. That’s slightly disappointing by the standards of the franchise—Despicable Me 2 was off 48% in its second weekend, by comparison—but decent enough for a film that topped $100 million on opening weekend. It still should pass $300 million.

The breakout success of the weekend is Trainwreck—yet another film from Universal to out-perform expectations. It will register a shade over $30 million this weekend, almost double original expectations, and a big victory for Amy Schumer, who wrote and stars in the film, and for Judd Apatow—this is his best opening weekend as director since Knocked Up.

One notable record fell to Jurassic World this weekend: it became the fastest film to reach $600 million at the domestic box office. It reaches the mark in 36 days, 11 days faster than Avatar, but with much less gas left in its tank. Avatar earned $23 million the weekend after passing $600 million; Jurassic World will earn $11.4 million this weekend. Our all-time top grossing films comparison chart highlights the closing gap between the two films at this point in their runs.

In limited release, Woody Allen’s latest, Irrational Man will open with an estmated $188,115 from five theaters, for an average of $37,623. The average is a bit better than Magic in the Moonlight’s last year (that opened to an average of $24,000), but well behind Blue Jasmine’s $102,000 average from two years ago. The writer-director, who turns 80 this year, has an Amazon Prime TV show lined up next, so one wonders how many more films he has in him, although he claims there are a few more to come.

Also in limited release, Mr. Holmes will most likely just make it into the top 10 with an estimated $2,489,000 from 363 theaters. That’s a creditable debut for the drama, with an average of $6,857 per theater. Bollywood film Bajrangi Bhaijaan might just pip it at the post. Current projections put that film on $2.4 million from 256 venues, for an average of $9,375.

- Weekend Estimates
- Fastest films to $600 million
- All-time top-grossing films comparison

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Jurassic World, Ant-Man, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Minions, Mr. Holmes, Trainwreck, Irrational Man, Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Despicable Me, Woody Allen, Judd Apatow, Amy Schumer