Out of all of the films opening in October, Frankenweenie is the movie I'm most interested in seeing, by a pretty large margin. However, I will admit I am in the minority here and there are three other October releases that will likely outpace it at the box office. It is very rare for a stop-motion animated film to be a big hit. ParaNorman made more than $50 million during its run, which isn't bad given its release date, but it was just a midlevel hit, no more. Frankenweenie has a better release date while its reviews are almost as good. Also, Tim Burton has had some success with films like this in the past. Perhaps the proximity to Halloween will help it earn $75 million or more, but failing to reach $50 million is just as likely. I would like to think this film will be a surprise hit, but I think it's best to be cautious.

A college film about two competing groups of A Cappella singers trying to win a national tournament. This is far from the first college film with a similar setup. Granted, A Cappella is a new twist, but there have been movies like this about drumming, dancing, etc. I think there's a correlation between the popularity of the music style and the success at the box office, which is probably bad news for this film. Also, the film doesn't have a lot of name recognition on either side of the camera. Sure, Anna Kendrick is in Twilight, but she's just starting to show people she can be a lead outside of that franchise. The film is also Jason Moore's first film as a director (he has directed several episodes of a few TV shows) so it is unlikely he will be able to draw in moviegoers. Finally, it is also opening in select cities one weekend before expanding wide the next. This is rarely an easy thing to do and many films that have tried, have crashed and burned. If it does crash and burn, it won't make $5 million in total. On the other hand, it could make $5 million opening weekend and might even hit $50 million in total. The above box office potential represents a weighted average of the two extremes.

Last Minute Update: According to Sunday's estimates, film earned just over $5 million during opening weekend giving it a per theater average of more than $15,000. Expanding wide shouldn't be too much of a problem and it should become a solid midlevel hit. As a result, I've increased the box office potential from $15 million to $35 million. There is also a potential it will last long enough in theaters to grow beyond that.

The original Taken was a relatively low-budget action film that earned mostly positive reviews but was given a weak release date. However, the film became one of the biggest January releases of all time earning close to $150 million domestically. It was no surprise that Taken 2 was given a greenlight. However, I am a little surprised they increased the production budget to $80 million and gave the film to a director whose previous two films, Colombiana and Transporter 3, both struggled at the box office. Even worse, there is some negative buzz around the film, as fans of the first movie are complaining that the film's plot is just too similar to the first one. It is practically a remake rather than a sequel. Finally, the early reviews are a disaster. There have been a number of examples of films surprising analysts enough to get a sequel, only to have that sequel bomb. Speed II is one such film, and it is far from the most extreme example of that. There is a chance that this film will suffer a similar collapse, which would give it about $60 million theatrically. I really hope that doesn't happen, but there's no way to dismiss the possibility. On the other hand, this could be a film that plays better to moviegoers than it does to critics and it could become the biggest hit of the month earning more than $100 million.

Ben Affleck directs and stars in this film, which is based on real life events. It takes place during the Iran Hostage Crisis and involves a C.I.A. plan to rescue six embassy workers who escaped when the revolutionaries attacked and are currently hiding in a Canadian diplomat's house. Ben Affleck's recent box office numbers have been rather weak, at least has an actor. His performance as a director has been solid. His first two movies earned award-worthy reviews and this film is currently doing the same. With a Tomatometer Score of 94% positive, it could earn some Awards Season buzz and that could help it at the box office. On the other hand, I don't think it will live up to The Town, as a film about a rescue in the 1970s won't be as easy to sell to moviegoers as a movie about bank robbers. That said, it appears to be the biggest film of the weekend and as long as it didn't cost too much to make, it should break even sooner rather than later.

If this film was made just after Grown Ups, I would say this is a sure $100 million movie. After all, at that point, Kevin James had only been in five live action movies, but all of them had made $100 million. His last two films missed expectations, The Dilemma missed them by a lot. Also, it is directed by Frank Coraci, whose directing career can be divided into two groups: Films starring Adam Sandler and films that struggled at the box office. Finally, it's a movie about Mixed Martial Arts and most sports movies depend heavily on the popularity of the sport, and MMA is still a niche sport. Before anyone complains about that description and sends me statements about PPV viewership, even people who don't watch football regularly will know enough about the sport to follow a movie based on it, because football has such a long history. The same is not true of MMA. Perhaps I'm underestimating the popularity of the sport and of Kevin James and perhaps the film will be a surprise hit, but the evidence points to a midlevel hit at the most.

This film is written and directed by Martin McDonagh, who has only made two other films in his career, and one of them was a short film. However, that short film, Six Shooter, earned him an Oscar Best Live Action Short Film, while In Bruges earned him an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay. Early reviews suggest this film could be his best work. However, it's box office chances are not great. In Bruges earned less than $10 million at the box office, despite its critical success. Also, Seven Psychopaths is a Black Comedy, which is a hard genre to market. Additionally, there's a chance this film won't open truly wide. Finally, it is being released by CBS Films, which hasn't had a breakout hit. In fact, their best film, The Woman in Black, was barely a midlevel hit.

There is a chance it will be a surprise hit and will make $50 million; it has been earning a lot of buzz. There is also a chance Seven Psychopaths won't open truly wide and will flop earning less than $10 million. I hope it's closer to the high end, but I'm not sold.

Scott Derrickson previously wrote and directed The Exorcism of Emily Rose, which was a low-budget horror film that made a huge amount of money, despite earning merely mixed reviews. Sinister, on the other hand, is earning perfect reviews. It could be a surprise hit. Back to the original hand, as much as I like Ethan Hawke, it has been a while since he's been in a movie that was more than a middling hit. Also, there's direct competition coming out the next week, and this competition is much bigger. Hopefully it will live up to its reviews at the box office, but I wouldn't bet money on it. I see this one struggling like Let Me In did, despite that film earning amazing reviews.

This is the third film based on the Alex Cross novels with Morgan Freeman playing the character in Kiss the Girls and Along Came a Spider. Now more than a decade later, Tyler Perry is taking over the role. Is this the start of a new franchise? If it is, it will have to perform better than Tyler Perry's career average. I'm not counting Star Trek, because it is so far above the rest of his films and his role was little more than a cameo. In fact, it might not be wise to include the Madea movies, but they too are significantly above his films where he's not wearing a dress. I think the previous film of his that is most like this one is Good Deeds, which is bad news for this movie.

I think it would take a minor miracle for Alex Cross to live up to Kiss the Girls and Along Came a Spider and I really doubt there will be sequels.

If it's Halloween, it must be Paranormal Activity. The annual release of these movies makes it hard to come up with something new to talk about. In fact, I was thinking about cutting and pasting the preview for Paranormal Activity 3 just to see if anyone would notice. I liked the first movie, but I was worn out by the sameness of the sequels. Paranormal Activity 4 might play well with the moviegoers that loved those two movies, but I think the more causal fans will be looking for something fresher this year.

An inspirational sports film about the life of the late surfing legend Jay Moriarity. I didn't know who that was either. That's the main problem with this film's box office chances. It's a surfing film and surfing is far from a mainstream sport. There are so few true surfer movies (as opposed to movies where one or more characters surf briefly) that it is hard to judge this film's box box office potential. Last year, Soul Surfer did well enough to be considered a midlevel hit; however, it had the churchgoing crowd to tap into. Also, its star, AnnaSophia Robb, had much higher name recognition than Jonny Weston does. Finally, Chasing Mavericks is arguably the smallest film coming out during the busiest weekend of the month. Chasing Mavericks might open below the Mendoza Line and disappear before reaching eight figures. I'm going to be a little more optimistic than that, but not by much.

This is a really wild card and there's a lot of uncertainty here. The film cost between $100 million to $150 million, so clearly the studio was hoping for a massive box office numbers. It will probably need to make $300 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even during its home market run. There are very few people who think that will happen. It might not reach $50 million domestically. There are some reasons to be optimistic, including strong early reviews, plus the Wachowski Siblings have made some amazing movies, and there are a lot of big names in this movie. However, the usual reaction to the first trailer was, "Huh?" The extended trailer was better, but I fear the film is too high concept for mass appeal.

Maybe Cloud Atlas will be a surprise $100 million hit. Or maybe it will be a bomb like The Three Musketeers was. I really have no idea.

Both Josh Schwartz and Victoria Justice have long careers; however, both of them have been in television and not movies. Fun Size is Josh Schwartz first movie and Victoria Justice's first starring role in a movie. That's a interesting footnote, but a troubling sign for the film's box office chances. Also, live action kids movies are not known for being huge hits. Aliens in the Attic, Monte Carlo, and Ramona and Beezus all failed to reach big audiences. Fun Size is a Halloween film opening Halloween weekend, which could help it on the first two days, but once Halloween hits on Sunday, the target audience will be more interested in getting candy themselves than watching this movie. On the other hand, it probably didn't cost a whole lot to make and Nickelodeon will be able to play it on their network every Halloween from now until eternity, so breaking even is quite possible.

Silent Hill was not hit with critics, while it barely made enough to break even sometime during its home market run. I'm a little surprised the studio was willing to risk money making a sequel. I don't think Silent Hill: Revolution 3D will do as well as its predecessor, despite the six years of inflation and 3D ticket prices. The buzz is just not there, while there is a horror film opening each of the two previous weeks, so the competition is way too strong. It is opening Halloween weekend, so horror fans will be out in force, but that just means the sophomore stint drop-off will be even greater.