November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
More...
December 8th, 2016
The first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide was a little shorter than I would have liked, because there wasn’t much in the way of first-run releases and franchise box sets. The second installment is going to be even shorter. That’s not to say there isn’t a lot of TV on DVD releases that would make worthy gifts, but we limit ourselves to first seasons and complete series Megasets. You don’t need us to tell you if Modern Family: Season Seven would make a good gift, for example. If the recipient hasn’t started watching the show yet, they are likely not into it. (There is an exception to this rule this year, but more on that down below.) The number of high-quality new shows that have a first season out on DVD / Blu-ray are very limited. Atlanta is amazing, but the first season is only out on Video on Demand. The first season of Luke Cage is only available on Netflix. Furthermore, there are not a lot Megasets worth talking about. That said, we begin with not just a Megaset, but a Gigaset. Perhaps even a Teraset!
More...
September 25th, 2016
Captain America: Civil War is the 13th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. That’s 13 films in just 8 years. The film pulled in more than $1 billion worldwide, so the market isn’t tired of these movies. However, has the brisk pace resulted in a substandard film? Or is it yet another critical smash?
More...
July 18th, 2016
This week, the home market is led by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, at least in terms of box office dollars. It is far from the best in terms of reviews. That’s not to say there are no high quality releases this week. In fact, there are five Pick of the Week contenders, six if you include Belladonna Of Sadness, which came out last week, but the screener arrived late, so the review didn’t get published till the weekend. In the end, I went with To Have and Have Not on Blu-ray as Pick of the Week. However, Orphan Black: Season Four earns the seldom awarded Puck of the Week, as the best Canadian release.
More...
July 17th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice came out on Video on Demand two weeks ago, but comes out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, 3D Combo Pack, or 4k Combo Pack this week. I’m reviewing the VOD, not because I got a screener, but because one of the people I game with watched it in theaters and demanded others in our group see it, so he’s not the only one to suffer. Is it really as bad as its reputation? Yes. Yes it is.
More...
June 28th, 2016
Usually, this time of year is terrible for the home market. However, this week, Kung Fu Panda 3 hits the home market. I'm still waiting on the screener, but its reviews are a step above most of its competition, so at the very least it is a contender for Pick of the Week. It's not the only contender, but there can only be one winner and this week it's Eye in the Sky on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
More...
May 27th, 2016
X-Men: Apocalypse started off the Memorial Day long weekend with $8.2 million in 3,565 theaters during its Thursday previews. This is well back from Captain America: Civil War or Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both of which earned more than $25 million. However, it is better than Days of Future Past, which earned $8.1 million, so there's a chance it will cracked $100 million over the four-day weekend. I think the reviews will be a major hindrance in that goal, unless fans like it a whole lot more than critics did. This time tomorrow, we will have the opening day numbers, as well as its CinemaScore, so we will have a better grasp on its opening weekend run.
More...
May 26th, 2016
It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.
More...
May 24th, 2016
While each film in the top five on this weekend's box office chart finished in the right place, none of them matched expectations, save for The Jungle Book, which earned fifth place. The Angry Birds Movie debuted on top of the chart with $38.16 million, which is an okay opening for a family film at this time of year and nothing more. Likewise, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising struggled compared to its predecessor, but did well compared to its budget. The Nice Guys will need long legs to break even. The overall box office rose 4.5% from last weekend, reaching $137 million, but fell 11% from the same weekend last year. 2016's lead over 2015 shrank to 5.1% or $200 million at $4.14 billion to $3.94 billion. This is a very impressive figure, but might not be enough to keep 2016 in the lead throughout the rest of the year. Jurassic World came out last June and there's little hope any film this June will match it.
More...
May 19th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, all of which are aimed at different target audiences. The Angry Birds Movie is aimed at families and will likely be the biggest hit of the weekend. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising is an R-rated comedy that is hoping to avoid a Horrible Bosses 2 drop-off. Finally there's The Nice Guys, which is aiming for counter-programming success. If it tops $15 million over the weekend, it will be seen as a success. Captain America: Civil War will still be in the mix and could earn the threepeat, but could also fall to third place. This weekend last year, all five films in the top five earned at least $20 million. That won't happen this year. 2016 will lose, but it won't be a disaster in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
May 17th, 2016
The weekend box office was weaker than predicted at the top, but stronger in the second and third spots. Captain America: Civil War led the way with $72.64 million. This was lower than expected, but still more than the rest of the films combined earned. Money Monster was better than expected with $14.79 million. Overall, the box office was down 45% from last weekend to $130 million, while it was down 29% from this weekend last year. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive $230 million or 6.2% at $3.97 billion to $3.73 billion. I was worried 2016 and 2015 would be in a virtual tie by now, so this is great news.
More...
May 12th, 2016
There's not much mystery over what movie will come out on top of the box office this weekend. Captain America: Civil War will repeat as champion, as neither Money Monster nor The Darkness are expected to be box office hits. In fact, both of them combined will earn less in total than Civil War will make over the weekend. Unfortunately, this weekend last year had a one-two punch with Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Civil War will beat those two individually, but 2015's depth is going to be really hard to top. Fortunately, 2016 has such a lead so far that it can weather this storm.
More...
May 10th, 2016
Captain America: Civil War not only had the best theater average of the weekend, but it also had the best theater average for any film released in 2016. Its average of $42,390 was just ahead of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, while Midnight Special remains the best average for a limited release this year. Other films in the $10,000 club this week include A Bigger Splash, which earned an average of $22,884 in five theaters over the weekend for an average of $27,697 from Wednesday through Sunday. Eva Hesse saw its average rise 8% to $13,816, but it did open on a Wednesday last week, so that likely depressed its weekend numbers last week. Dheepan just made it into the $10,000 club with an average of $10,125 in two theaters.
More...
May 10th, 2016
The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion.
More...
May 8th, 2016
Another weekend, another triumph at the box office for Disney. After a hattrick of wins for The Jungle Book, the studio’s Captain America: Civil War will top the chart this weekend with a year’s-best $181.8 million, according to the studio’s weekend projection, released on Sunday morning. Our model projects that it will fall just short of $180 million, but either way it will set easily a new best weekend in 2016, beating the $166 million debut of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and record the fifth-best weekend of all time, landing in between The Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. The Marvel Cinematic Universe now claims four of the top six spots on the all-time list.
More...
May 6th, 2016
Summer officially started last night at 7 pm with Captain America: Civil War Thursday previews. The film pulled in $25 million, which is the second best figure for a Marvel Cinematic Universe. The only MCU film to top it was The Avengers: Age of Ultron, which earned $27.6 million last year. On the other hand, Civil War does have better reviews than Age of Ultron earned, so it should have better legs. Likewise, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned $27.7 million earlier this year, but its legs were hurt by its reviews. I still think Civil War will earn $200 million, more or less, over the weekend.
More...
May 5th, 2016
According to Fandango, Captain America: Civil War has had the best prerelease sales of any comic book film and the second best overall, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It should come as no surprise that no other studio was willing to take a chance and go head-to-head with Civil War. However, it won't be the only film earning tens of millions of dollars this weekend. The Jungle Book will finally relinquish top spot, but I would be shocked if it didn't earn at least $20 million over the weekend. None of the rest of the box office will earn a fraction of that. Due to a misalignment in the calendar, the biggest new release from this weekend last year was Hot Pursuit, while The Avengers: Age of Ultron topped the chart with $77.75 million. Civil War should make more than that opening day.
More...
May 3rd, 2016
-4-News.jpg)
This past weekend was the weekend before the start of summer, so you knew the wide releases weren't going to be massive hits. However, I was still hoping for more than what we got. Fortunately, The Jungle Book did beat expectations earning first place with $43.71 million. The best of the new releases was Keanu, which only managed third place with $9.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 16% from last weekend to $108 million. The year-over-year comparison is devastating; however, that's because the same weekend last year was the first weekend of May when The Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted. Compared to last year, this weekend's box office was 54% lower. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has shrunk to 5.7% at $3.51 billion to $3.32 billion. Next weekend, 2016 should bounce back when Captain America: Civil War opens.
More...
April 28th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend.
More...
April 27th, 2016
-5-News.jpg)
The Jungle Book earned nearly three times as much money as its nearest competition with $96.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $337.0 million internationally and $529.2 million worldwide. More impressively, it did this with no major market openings this past weekend. As for individual markets, the film became the biggest Hollywood film in India earning $28.8 million after three weeks of release. The previous record holder was Furious 7 at $23.4 million. The film's biggest weekend haul came from China, where it made $29.78 million over the weekend for a total of $99.03 million after just 11 days of release.
More...
April 26th, 2016
Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million.
More...
April 23rd, 2016
The Jungle Book remained the top draw on Friday with $16.38 million, which was more than twice as much as The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with. With its reviews and family-friendly nature, Saturday will be even better for Jungle Book, and it should top $60 million over the weekend. That’s a great sophomore weekend, even if it is below our prediction of $65 million. It also won’t quite take the film past $200 million by the end of the weekend, but it will be close enough that Disney will be able to celebrate that milestone shortly.
More...
April 21st, 2016
It's a bad week for new releases, as The Jungle Book is widely expected to dominate the box office. The only truly wide release is The Huntsman: Winter's War, but its reviews are simply terrible. There are also three films opening in select theaters and one of them should earn a spot in the top ten. They only need a little more than $1 million to do so. This weekend last year, the only true wide release was The Age of Adaline, which opened with $13 million on its way to becoming a midlevel hit. The Huntsman could double that opening, but it won't have the same legs.
More...
April 21st, 2016
The Jungle Book roared to first place with $136.1 million in 49 markets for very early totals of $187.4 million internationally and $290.7 million worldwide. This includes a first-place, $49.26 million opening in China. It also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $14.80 million in 594 theaters. It also opened in first place in France ($7,99 million on 653 screens) and Germany ($5.13 million on 934). These openings are great, but not as great as its domestic debut. Then again, its domestic debut was stunning.
More...
April 18th, 2016
-3-News.jpg)
Wow. As expected, The Jungle Book easily won first place on the box office chart, but did so with a much, much better than anticipated result of $103.26 million during its opening weekend. This is more than the rest of the box office earned. Barbershop: The Next Cut did well as counter-programming earning $20.24 million. On the other hand, Criminal missed the top five and barely managed to avoid the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $176 million, which was 68% more than last weekend and 47% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.19 billion at the box office, which is 9.2% / $270 million more than last year's pace. I didn't think 2016 had a chance to top 2015, but I'm really getting optimistic now.
More...
April 17th, 2016
-1-News.jpg)
2016 is shaping up to be just about the perfect year on all fronts for Disney. They started the year with Star Wars at the top of the box office; Zootopia far out-performed expectations; Captain America: Civil War, Alice Through the Looking Glass and Finding Dory position them perfectly for the Summer; and Doctor Strange and Star Wars: Rogue One are two of the most talked about movies coming at the end of the year. (Oh, and they’re slipping a long-awaited Steven Spielberg family-friendly film in the middle of all that.)
All-in-all, this could be a year of studio dominance the likes of which we haven’t seen since, well, last year, when Universal could do no wrong. Their incredible year really took flight at the beginning of April, when Furious 7 posted a monthly record $147 million opening weekend. The Jungle Book won’t hit those heights, but it will most likely be the second film to top $100 million in April, with Disney projecting a weekend of $103.57 million as of Sunday morning.
More...
April 16th, 2016
Friday's box office had some good news, some bad news, and some ugly news. The Jungle Book opened with an amazing $32.41 million on Friday. Given its family-friendly target demographic and its 95% positive reviews, it should have a great internal multiplier. For example, Cinderella opened with $23.00 million during its opening day on the way to an opening weekend of $67.88 million. If The Jungle Book has the same internal multiplier, it will earn $96 million over the weekend. However, films that open bigger have a harder time maintaining those numbers. An opening weekend of $90 million is possible, but I think it will fall just short of that mark.
More...
April 15th, 2016
The Jungle Book has stellar previews pulling in $4.2 million in Thursday. That's not as big as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice or Deadpool made earlier this year. However, it is more than the $2.3 million Cinderella earned last year. This bodes well for its weekend run.
More...
April 15th, 2016
Hollywood's attempt to redefine the start of summer as "some time in April" continue this week with the release of The Jungle Book. This film is expected to dominate the box office this weekend and possibly next weekend as well. Barbershop: The Next Cut is also expected to do well, perhaps earning the biggest opening in the franchise, not taking into account inflation. Finally there's Criminal, which should just be happy with a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way, but Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and Unfriended were close behind. Fortunately, it looks like The Jungle Book will earn more than those three made combined. 2016 should have a good week on the year-over-year comparison.
More...
April 15th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place with $31.92 million in 67 theaters for totals of $486.8 million internationally and $783.4 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will hit $800 million early this weekend, but it looks like $900 million might be out of reach. This is bad news for the studio, as the film reportedly needed to hit $1 billion to break even. On other other hand, if the other films in the D.C. Extended Universe are good, then each time one of them comes out, BvS will gets a small boost on the home market. Maybe that will be enough to break even eventually.
More...
April 12th, 2016
The Boss was a little better than anticipated and that helped it overtake Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice during its opening weekend. The fact that BvS couldn't get first place three weekends in a row despite the lack of top-tier competition is really bad news. It's not the only film struggling at the box office, as Hardcore Henry missed the Mendoza Line during its opening. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $105 million. It was also down 20% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $2.99 billion, but its lead over 2015 has shrunk to 8.0% or $220 million. That's still a good figure, one that should grow next weekend when The Jungle Book opens.
More...
April 10th, 2016
Critics have not been kind to The Boss, and audiences are split 50–50 between liking it and hating it, but it will still post a respectable $23.48 million opening, according to Universal’s Sunday projection. Among recent Melissa McCarthy outings, that’s a little ahead of Tammy ($21.6 million on opening weekend), and a little behind Spy! ($29.1 million). Of more immediate interest, it’s almost exactly tied with Batman v Superman at the top of the chart.
More...
April 9th, 2016
As anticipated, The Boss earned first place on Friday earning $8.08 million to push Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice into second place, for now. That won’t last, probably. Bad reviews won't help its legs, but it is aiming at more mature women, which is a positive. Assuming those two things balance out, more or less, The Boss should earn $21 million to $22 million over the weekend.
More...
April 7th, 2016
There's some good news and some bad news with regards to the two new releases coming out this week. On the positive side, the competition is a lot weaker than it should be. On the negative side, so are the reviews. The Boss's reviews are weaker than Tammy's are. Additionally, Hardcore Henry's reviews went from more than 80% positive to less than 50% positive and it looks like it will continue to drop. It is playing in a lot more theaters than anticipated, so that's good news. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way with nearly $60 million. That's not much less than the top five will earn this weekend. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
April 7th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice remained in first place on the international chart, but it did so with just $85.1 million in 67 markets for totals of $421.4 million internationally and $681.8 million worldwide. The film fell 77% in China to just $12.86 million for a total of $85.68 million after two weeks of release. It might fizzle out before it gets to $100 million in that market. You have to assume the studio was looking forward to twice that figure there. It fell 68% in the U.K. to $6.97 million in 612 theaters over the weekend for a ten-day total of $41.59 million. On the other hand, it held on very well in Brazil down just 39% to $6.44 million on 893 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $20.88 million.
More...
April 6th, 2016
Miles Ahead led the way on the theater average chart with $28,633 in four theaters. Vaxxed: From Cover Up to Catastrophe was right behind with $28,339 in one theater. As someone who doesn't want to see measles make a comeback, this is a scary result. Everybody Wants Some earned an average of $16,440 in 19 theaters over the weekend after opening in five theaters on Wednesday. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,062. Saturday's Warrior and Chongqing Hot Pot had very close averages at $10,671 and $10,098 respectively.
More...
April 5th, 2016
As anticipated, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it had the worst sophomore stint decline of any major super hero movie, plummeting to just $51.34 million. God's Not Dead 2 only managed fourth place over the weekend with $7.62 million,which is a worse opening than the original managed. Overall, the box office fell 48% from last weekend, pulling in $132 million. The decline from last year was almost as big at 41%; however, there was a misalignment in the Easter holiday and Easter 2016 out-grossed Easter 2015 by 13%. I'm going to call that a victory. Year-to-date, 2016 still leads 2015 by a significant margin at $2.85 billion to $2.52 billion.
More...
April 3rd, 2016
Last weekend, Batman v Superman posted the 7th-biggest opening weekend of all time. This weekend, if Sunday’s estimate proves to be accurate, it will record the 27th-biggest 2nd weekend. That stat tells you most of what you need to know about the film’s box office performance: it hit big at the beginning, but is proving to have very little staying power. Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection for the weekend is $52.385 million, down 68% from last weekend, for a total of $261.5 million to date. With $419.8 million overseas so far, the film is well on its way to $700 million worldwide, and should make about $900 million in total. That’s certainly short of what the studio was hoping for—the consensus was that the film needed $1 billion globally to make a profit—but surely enough to keep their plans for the franchise on track for now.
More...
April 2nd, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is officially in trouble after falling 81% on the Friday over Friday comparison. It only managed $15.35 million at the box office yesterday, which is 5.4% less than Deadpool earned during its second Friday of its release. Granted, BvS still has a nearly $30 million lead over Deadpool after 8 days of release, but unless it bounces back on Saturday, that lead isn't safe. Look for between $50 million and $51 million over the weekend. Also look out for panicked Warner Bros. executives and possible rescheduling of some of the D.C. Extended Universe upcoming releases.
More...
April 1st, 2016
This is going to be a short prediction column, because a computer crash meant I had to redo the entire monthly preview in one day. Not been a fun day. Fortunately, there's only one new wide release, God's Not Dead 2, so there's not a lot to talk about. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will remain in first place, but all eyes will be on its sophomore stint drop-off. This weekend last year, Furious 7 debuted with $147 million. There's no chance the total box office will top that this year, so 2016 will get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
March 31st, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice destroyed the competition earning one of the best international opening weekends of all time at $254 million in 66 markets. Worldwide, the film made $420.01 million during its opening weekend, which was the fourth biggest opening weekend of all time. That's the good news. The bad news is the film's legs. Like its domestic run, the film started out amazingly, but saw its fortunes fall as the weekend went on. China is a good example of this. The film started out as well as expected, but by the end it pulled in $56.27 million during its four-day opening weekend. I read that the studio was expecting close to $80 million there. The film also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $21.85 million in 612 theaters. At first look, that's a large number; however, its barely more than Deadpool opened with earlier this year. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.43 million) and in Brazil ($10.61 million), while it came close in Australia ($9.54 million).
More...
March 30th, 2016
The winners of our Prediction v Prediction contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening weekend were...
More...
March 30th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place on the theater average chart for the weekend and for 2016 with $39,134. The previous record was $38,002 held by Midnight Special and was set last weekend. This week, Midnight Special had to settle for second place on the chart with an average of $20,003. Born to be Blue was the best new limited release earning an average of $15,395 in three theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was April and the Extraordinary World, which earned $11,413 in its lone theater.
More...
March 28th, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the box office earning $166.01 million over the weekend. However, this is lower than anticipated and lower than Saturday's calculation or Sunday's estimates. (Our model turned out to be closer.) Most of the rest of the films in the top five had reason to be happy, as did the overall box office, which was an amazing $252 million. This is 92% higher than last weekend and 68% more than this weekend last year. This kind of year-over-year growth usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holidays, which is exactly what happened this weekend. Last year, Easter didn't happen until April 5th. Year-to-date, 2016 doubled its lead over 2015 at $2.63 billion to $2.27 billion. A $370 million, 16% lead is certainly impressive, but I suspect it will shrink dramatically next month. Hopefully it isn't completely gone by May.
More...
March 27th, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
More...
March 26th, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the Friday box office with $82.01 million. This is likely more than the rest of the films will earn during the entire weekend. It is also the record for the biggest single day in March, biggest pre-summer single day, and biggest Easter Friday box office. That’s where the good news ends. The film’s reviews remain just 30% positive, making it one of the worst recent tentpole releases. Worse still, its CinemaScore was just a B. That doesn't sound bad on the surface, but you have to remember that the CinemaScore is from people excited enough to see a movie on opening day. Anything less than a B+ usually results in weak legs. In comparison, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen managed a B+ and had weak legs during the prime Summer season. Batman v Superman is on pace for a $172 million opening weekend, which won’t give it a good internal multiplier and there’s a chance it won’t earn $172 million during the rest of its domestic theatrical run. It will need a lively international run and a worldwide total of close to $1 billion to break even.
More...
March 25th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice started its box office run with $27.7 million from Thursday previews. This is more than twice what Deadpool earned during its previews earlier this year and it beats the previous pre-summer record of $15.8 million by Furious 7 last year. Unfortunately, there are a couple of reasons to not be too excited. Firstly, the Fanboy effect is really strong for this film. “Committed” would be a word I would use to described the hardcore fans of the DC Extended Universe. They will rush out to see the movie regardless of the quality. Secondly, this is a terrible movie. Its Tomatometer Score is just 30% positive, which is bad no matter how you look at it. Word-of-mouth could do some real damage before the weekend is over.
More...
March 24th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opens this weekend and should become the biggest film of the year. It has to become the biggest hit of the year. It is the first of ten upcoming films in the DC Extended Universe and it is rumored that Warner Bros. spent $400 million getting this movie to theaters. To be fair, $100 million of this could be described as pre-pre-production for the rest of the DCEU. The other wide release is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which is a delayed sequel that I'm not sure many people are really excited to see. It likely didn't cost a lot, so it should break even sooner rather than later. This weekend last year, Home earned first place with $52.11 million. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should earn more than that during its opening day.
More...
March 23rd, 2016
Zootopia remained in first place with $64.8 million in 49 markets for totals of $389.9 million internationally and $590.8 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in Australia, where it earned first place with $3.08 million on 479 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.48 million including previews. It also topped the charts during its opening weekend in Brazil with $2.57 million on 774 screens. The film's biggest market overall was China, where it remained in first place with $37.24 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $172.79 million. This blows past Kung Fu Panda 3's record for an animated film and it will soon become the first such film to reach the $200 million mark in that market.
More...
March 23rd, 2016
The winners of our Play the Game contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Allegiant opening weekend were...
More...
March 22nd, 2016
At the beginning of the month, it was widely accepted that The Divergent Series: Allegiant would open in first place. However, two things happened to prevent that. Firstly, Zootopia not only opened faster, but its legs were much longer. Secondly, Allegiant failed to match even lowered expectations. This left Zootopia with an easy first place win over the weekend. However, it wasn't the only pleasant surprise, as Miracles from Heaven opened faster than expected. The overall box office slipped 3.3% from last weekend to $131 million. It was also 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by an 8.4% margin at $2.33 billion to $2.15 billion.
More...
March 20th, 2016
Zootopia is set to win a third straight race and pass $200 million at the domestic box office in the process, but the real story of this weekend is the weak debut by The Divergent Series: Allegiant.
More...
March 18th, 2016
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice opens next weekend and many think it will be the biggest box office hit of the year so far. It better be, otherwise Warner Bros. will be pissed that they spent $200 million on this movie only to lose to Deadpool. However, while it might not become the biggest hit of the year, it will certainly become the biggest hit of the weekend. It is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Hero Quest on DVD, and a previously reviewed movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a two previously reviewed movies, one of which will have a similar family-friendly target audience.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a two previously reviewed movies, one of which will have a similar family-friendly target audience.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
March 1st, 2016
It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
More...
