Weekend predictions: The Fall Guy could miss $30 million this weekend

May 3rd, 2024

The first weekend in May traditionally marks the beginning of Summer Season at the box office, and The Fall Guy seems like a perfect Summer movie: action, comedy, big-name stars, and a touch of nostalgia. This looked for a while like it could break out to become a major hit for Universal, and the studio has marketed it heavily. Audience buzz never really took off beyond a respectable level, and its Thursday previews suggest it might not make $30 million this weekend. With Tarot not expected to bring in a huge amount of business, this is looking like a modest start to Summer, although there is one other film that could help turn things around. More...

International Box Office: Ghost Rider Burns the Competition

February 29th, 2012

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance rose to first place with $21.44 million on 4,889 screens in 28 markets for a two-week total of $45.74 million. This week it opened in a trio of major markets, starting with Russia where it debuted in first place with $8.18 million on 913 screens. By comparison, Ghost Rider made $7.77 million in total in that market, so this is a great start. On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Germany with $2.32 million on 428, which is roughly on par with its predecessor's opening. But it only managed third place in Spain with $1.16 million on 439. By comparison, the film made $3.12 million during its opening there. Mixed results make it difficult to predict the film's final box office number, but I think it is safe to say there won't be a Ghost Rider 3 any time soon. More...

International Box Office: Journey Around the World

February 22nd, 2012

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island remained on top of the international chart with $27.5 million on 8,249 screens in 43 markets for a total of $130.0 million internationally. By comparison, its predecessor made $140 million in total. This week, The Mysterious Island opened in second place in France with $2.71 million on 436 screens, while it managed first place in Spain with $2.10 million on 468. The film is almost at $200 million worldwide, and with several major markets left to go, it should have no trouble getting to $250 million and maybe even $300 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: New Releases Stumble, but Winning Streak Still Safe

February 21st, 2012

Two of the three wide releases missed expectations and the best of the bunch, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, only managed third place over the weekend. However, the overall box office still pulled out a win in the year-over-year comparison. The box office did fall 19% from last weekend to $156 million, but this was 8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is much more important. The lead over last year grew to over $200 million at $1.46 billion to $1.23 billion, or 18%. Granted, it is still too early to celebrate, but so far the year-over-year numbers are fantastic while next weekend it looks even better. More...

Weekend Predictions: Is the Box Office Back with a Vengeance?

February 16th, 2012

We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win. More...

International Box Office: Journey to the Top

February 15th, 2012

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island climbed into first place with $30.0 million on 8,580 screens in 30 markets for a total of $79.20 million. To put this into perspective, its predecessor made $140 million in total, which is a figure this film could match, even if it didn't have any additional markets left to open in. Its biggest opening this weekend was in China where it earned $9.5 million, while it was also a big hit in Russia with $6.97 million on 1,021 screens. The film debuts in France and Spain this weekend, and has yet to open in Italy, Germany, Japan, and other markets. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Vow Wows

February 13th, 2012

Another weekend, another win. For the sixth weekend in a row, 2012 has topped 2011 in the year-over-year, and like much of the year, it wasn't even close. The overall box office was up 66% from last weekend reaching $192 million. It was also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. All four wide releases beat expectations, sometimes by wide margins. Also, all earned more than $20 million, which is the first time that's happened on a non-holiday weekend. And two of them earned $40 million or more. Year-to-date, 2012 now has a 19% lead on 2011 at $1.19 billion to $1.00 billion. There is reason to be cautious however, as a lot of this growth is due to 2011 getting off to a disastrous start. It is still too soon to declare victory, but it is reason to at least be somewhat optimistic. More...

Weekend Estimates: The Vow Leads Another Good Weekend

February 12th, 2012

The industry's good start to 2012 gained some more momentum this weekend as all four new releases performed at or beyond expectations. The Vow will lead the way, based on Sony's projection, with $41.7 million, which is a little less than 2010's Valentine's Day, although that film had the advantage of both Valentine's Day itself, and a four-day weekend. Safe House will open with around $39.3 million for Universal, which will be the studio's best opening since Fast Five in April of last year. Journey 2: Mysterious Island is set for $27.55 million, according to Warner Bros., and Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace will pick up $23 million or so for Fox. That foursome will ensure a record is set this weekend: for the first time, four films will open with over $20 million on a non-holiday weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will New Releases Keep 2012's Winning Streak Safe?

February 9th, 2012

2012 has beaten 2011 every single weekend so far and we could see that streak survive at least one more weekend thanks to three wide releases: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Safe House, and The Vow, plus a re-release, Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace. That's a crowded slate and normally I would assume one or more of the films would be squeezed out at the box office, but now I'm not so sure, as even the weakest amongst them is tracking for close to $20 million. By comparison, this weekend last year three films earned more than $25 million and only one new release failed to connect with audiences. So it could be a tough race, but I'm cautiously optimistic. More...

2012 Preview: February

February 1st, 2012

2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start. More...

2011 Holiday Gift Guide: Part I

November 23rd, 2011

This weekend is Thanksgiving and as always that means Black Friday and Cyber Monday plus 48 hours of shopping in-between. And as always, I've already done my Christmas shopping, for the most part. (I'm still waiting to see if the B.C.Lions win the Grey Cup. If not, I'll need to look for an alternative gift.) For everyone else who is still searching, we present the first part in our annual Holiday Gift Guide. As usual, the gift guide is divided into several sections, starting with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, before we get into the individual titles, we will start with an update on... More...

Blu-ray Sales: Transformers Soar Past the Moon

October 14th, 2011

Transformers: Dark of the Moon dominated the new releases and the Blu-ray sales chart in a way few films have managed. It sold 1.42 million units generating $29.66 million from Friday through Sunday. Its opening Blu-ray ratio was 64%, which is a record for a first-run release. It also represented 68% of all Blu-rays sold, which is mind-boggling. More...

Blu-ray Sales: Bridesmaids Highlight of Banner Week

October 5th, 2011

Bridesmaids led the way on the Blu-ray sales chart, just as it did on the DVD sales chart. It was by far the best new release selling 593,000 units and generating $13.30 million in revenue. Its opening week Blu-ray ratio was 30%, which is very high for this type of release and further proof Blu-ray is taking over from DVD. More...

Blu-ray Sales: Thor Goes to War

September 28th, 2011

There are three major releases on this week's Blu-ray sales chart, including one that was released a little early, and one that was released a little late. Leading the way in terms of units sold is Thor with 799,000 units / $22.00 million. Its opening Blu-ray ratio was just a hair under 50% and that's a figure that will quickly become the norm for blockbuster releases. More...

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for September 13th, 2011

September 13th, 2011

It is an incredibly busy week on the home market with several major releases, including Thor on Blu-ray, as well as Star Wars The Complete Saga, which comes out this Friday. Unfortunately, neither of the screeners have arrived yet, so it is hard to tell if they are pick of the week material. I figured Star Wars would easily take that honor, but the changes made have pissed off enough people that I think it's best that I hold off making a judgment till after it arrives. After spending way too long trying to pick between the two, I'm going with Degrassi: Season Ten, Part Two instead. More...