January 19th, 2012
The Blu-ray sales chart was both busy and slow this week. On the one hand, there were five new releases that charted this week, including three in the top ten. On the other hand, only one of those new releases, Contagion, did any significant business. It was able to sell 274,000 units while generating $4.93 million in revenue, giving it an opening week Blu-ray share of 40%. That's a very good share for a drama, but its overall home market run is disappointing.
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January 17th, 2012
There were five new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD sales chart. This includes a new number one selling DVD, Contagion. The film sold 411,000 units during its first week of release generating $6.16 million.
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January 16th, 2012
It's a slow week on the home market; there are four first run wide releases on this week's list, which is not bad, but only one of those, The Ides of March, earned reviews that were even remotely good. Unfortunately, there are only a few smaller releases that are worth checking out, so it's a pretty shallow week as well. As far as Pick of the Week is concerned, The Ides of March on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack win that honor, practically by default.
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January 11th, 2012
Shark Night opened in theaters at the beginning of September, which is one of the worst times of the year to release a movie. It wasn't expected to be a big hit, but it missed low expectations earning less than $20 million at the box office. Is it as bad as its box office performance would indicate? Or is there another explanation here? (Perhaps 3D fade is just too much and moviegoers are tuning out.) And if it is worth checking out, are there enough extras to warrant buying over just renting?
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January 3rd, 2012
The first Tuesday of the year is not a great time of year for new releases on the home market. It's an even worse time of year for critics, especially this year. With Christmas Day landing on the Sunday, many studios took the entire week off, so there are plenty of screeners that still haven't made it my way. (There is some good news here, as I was able to get caught up on all of the screeners that had previously arrived late.) A couple of these potential late arrivals are contenders for Pick of the Week, like Justified: Season Two - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and Mildred Pierce - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack. They also have competition from Contagion - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray, but in the end I gave that honor to The Guard - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray.
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November 10th, 2011
2011 continues to stumble to the finish line and I'm starting to get more than a little depressed at the overall box office numbers. This week we have three wide releases, if you stretch the definition of wide a little bit, as J. Edgar will open in less than 2,000 theaters. On the other hand, both Jack and Jill and Immortals are opening in 3,000 theaters and both have a shot at first place. However, Puss in Boots has an even better shot at holding onto first place for the third weekend in a row. While this is good news for Puss in Boots, it's bad news for the box office as a whole. It will likely earn substantially less than last year's number one film, Megamind. The combined openings of the three wide releases coming out this week will likely be larger than three wide releases from last year. If there's a pleasant surprise or two, 2011 will be able to earn the win. At least there's little chance we will see the kind of year-over-year declines we saw the last two weeks.
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September 12th, 2011
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year, and that appears to be the case this time around. No film matched Thursday's predictions, although a couple came relatively close, like Contagion. Unfortunately, the rest of the new releases really bombed and most of the holdovers fell significantly more than expected. This led to the box office falling 24% from last weekend to just $82 million. This is the lowest it's been all year, and lower than last year, but by less than 1%. Unless next weekend will be even worse, and it is almost hard to imagine that as a possibility, this will be the lowest point for the year. On the other hand, there's a chance that we don't dip below this level for a long, long time, if ever. Given population growth and inflation, hitting these low points are less likely each year.
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September 7th, 2011
We had a pleasant surprise over Labor Day long weekend as the holdover held on a lot better than expected, while the new releases were on par with expectations, at least on average. (One struggled, one came within a rounding error of the weekend prediction, and one crushed expectations.) This led to a total box office haul of $107 million from Friday through Sunday and $137 million if you include Monday. By comparison, last year the total box office was $106 million / $133 million. It was a close win, but a win's a win. Overall 2011 is behind 2010 by 4% at $7.46 billion to $7.78 billion. There's a slim chance 2011 will close the gap and come out on top in the end, but in order to do that, it will need to earn bigger victories than it did this weekend.
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September 1st, 2011
Summer officially ends at the box office this weekend, although looking at the numbers it's clear that summer ended weeks ago. The selection of new releases includes two horror films that were not screened for critics and a film that I don't think it would be unfair to call busted Oscar bait. There is a chance all three films will bomb and The Help will remain in first place for the third week in a row. On the opposite end of that scale, all three films could find an audience and 2011 could squeak out a win over 2010.
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September 1st, 2011
After a strong start, August ended on a really low note, and that's bad news for September, as it means the positive momentum we had is gone. Looking at the upcoming month, there are 18 films opening wide over five weekends (including one re-release) but only four or five of them have a real shot at being midlevel hits, and it is unlikely that all of them will get there. Worse still, there are no films opening this month that look like they will match The Town, which made more than $90 million last September. In fact, the selection of releases is so weak that the film I'm most looking forward to is a limited release that has already come out on Video on Demand, Tucker and Dale vs. Evil. (It has seventeen reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and still not a negative one among them.)
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August 26th, 2011
Next week is the beginning of September, which means the quality of films will continue to drop. (And it's not like there have been a lot of box office hits coming out the past few weeks.) There are two films that could battle it out for top spot: Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D. I don't expect either to be anything more than a midlevel hit, but Apollo 18 will likely come out on top. Regardless of that prediction, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Apollo 18.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Dora the Explorer: Dora's Halloween Parade on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Go, Diego, Go!: Fiercest Animal Rescues on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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