Home Market Releases for December 13th, 2016

December 12th, 2016

This is a strange week on the home market. We have one of the biggest domestic hits of the year, Suicide Squad, but it is one of the worst movies I’ve seen this year. (Granted, I’ve done fewer reviews this year and skipped a lot of terrible looking movies, like Independence Day: Resurgence, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt, Allegiant... Ben Hur, The Huntsman, The Legend of Tarzan. I could keep going. Wow! It was a bad year for $100 million movies.) After Suicide Squad, the next biggest release according to Amazon is the Chicago Cubs 2016 World Series Collector's Edition Blu-ray. That’s a huge drop in sales. As far as quality is concerned, I have to give a shout out to that World Series Blu-ray. Real fans want full games and this one provides them. On the other hand, I personally find baseball boring to watch. Unfortunately, there’s no one release that stands out as an obvious Pick of the Week, but instead we have a lot of releases that are close, but wouldn’t be close enough during a good week. The Twilight Zone: The Complete Series on Blu-ray is the best, assuming you didn’t grab the individual seasons when they came out. More...

Contest: Don’t Sully Your Reputation: Winning Announcement

September 14th, 2016

The winners of our Don’t Sully Your Reputation contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Morgan opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Predictions: The Real Work Begins

September 8th, 2016

The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year. However, this year there two films opening wide that have a real shot at $20 million or more. Sully is Oscar-bait, but it is opening a little too early for that role and its reviews are a little below where they need to be. When the Bough Breaks is a thriller aimed at African-Americans and this time of year has become the perfect time to release such a film. Those two films should earn $50 million combined. Unfortunately, there are two other films coming out this week. The Wild Life is a third-tier animated film, while The Disappointments Room isn’t even opening truly wide. There’s a chance neither of them will reach the top five. The Disappointments Room likely won’t reach the top ten. This weekend last year, the top two films were The Perfect Guy and The Visit, which combined earned just over $50 million at the box office. It should be a really close race in the year-over-year competition. More...

Contest: Doing Hard Labor: Winning Announcement

September 7th, 2016

The winners of our Doing Hard Labor contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Morgan opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Breathe Blows Away the New Releases

September 7th, 2016

The Labor Day long weekend wasn’t even close with Don’t Breathe earning more over three days than any other film earned over four. There were a couple of other major stories as Suicide Squad hit $300 million on Monday and Bad Moms hit $100 million on Saturday. Given the production budgets of those two films, the latter has a lot more reasons to celebrate. As for the new releases, the studios will just be hoping no one remembers them in a few weeks. The Light Between Oceans missed the top five, while Morgan missed the top ten. The overall box office fell 16% to $99 million over the three-day weekend and $127 million including Monday. This is 8.9% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 grew to $500 million at $7.98 billion to $7.48 billion. That’s a lead of 6.7%. It would take a real collapse for 2016 to lose at this rate. More...

Weekend Estimates: Don’t Breathe Wins Long, Slow Weekend

September 4th, 2016

Don’t Breathe is pulling off an easy win at the box office this weekend, and will become in the process the first horror film to win two straight weekends since Ouija did so, with some help from Halloween, in 2014. With an estimated 3-day $15.7 million, Don’t Breathe is ahead of Suicide Squad, which will stay in the top two for a fifth straight weekend with $10 million or so. Its total stands at $297 million as of Sunday, and will pass $300 million tomorrow. The relative success of those two films prompts a question… where are the new releases? More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases are a Stain on the Box Office

September 3rd, 2016

Labor Day long weekend is rarely a great time at the box office, but I wasn’t prepared for this. Neither of the new releases reached the top five on the Friday box office chart, leaving Don’t Breathe the clear winner for the day with $4.18 million. This is down just 58% from its opening Friday, so it will easily top predictions. It looks like it will earn more over three days ($14 million) than we predicted it would earn over four ($13 million). More...

Thursday Night Previews: Throwing Shade on Light and Morgan

September 2nd, 2016

This will be the shortest Thursday Night Previews column I’ve ever written, as no numbers were released. That’s a really bad sign for The Light Between Oceans and especially Morgan. Horror / thrillers tend to do well in previews, certainly better than dramas do. Assuming the numbers are not just really late because of the holiday, which is a safe assumption, then the weekend box office could be tragic. I’ll keep an eye out for numbers and I’ll update this story if any show up. More...

Weekend Predictions: With Labor Day Comes the Fall

September 1st, 2016

Summer officially ends this week with Labor Day long weekend. For a lot of families, this is the last long weekend before school starts. (For other families, school has already started.) There are two films opening wide-ish this weekend. I thought Morgan would open in 2,500 theaters, but it is only opening in 2,020. That will hurt its box office chances. The Light Between Oceans is only opening in 1,500 theaters, which might prevent it from reaching the top five over the weekend. Don’t Breathe will likely remain in first place over the weekend, but I think Morgan will be closer than most people expected it to be. This weekend last year there was not a single film to earn more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. I think Don’t Breathe will top that, while Morgan will be relatively close. This should give 2016 the advantage in the year-over-year competition. More...

2016 Preview: September

September 1st, 2016

August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top. More...

Contest: Hold Your Breath: Winning Announcement

August 31st, 2016

The winners of our Hold Your Breath contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Hold Your Breath opening weekend were... More...

Morgan Trailer

August 26th, 2016

Sci-fi thriller starring Kate Mara, directed by Luke Scott opens September 2 ... Full Movie Details.

A corporate troubleshooter is sent to a remote, top-secret location, where she is to investigate and evaluate a terrifying accident. She learns the event was triggered by a seemingly innocent “human,” who presents a mystery of both infinite promise and incalculable danger. More...

Contest: Doing Hard Labor

August 25th, 2016

Next weekend is Labor Day, which is historically one of the worst long weekends at the box office. There are two wide releases debuting, Morgan and The Light Between Oceans. While the latter will likely have better legs, Morgan should start faster and because of that, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Morgan.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest. More...