2015 - Awards Season: DGA - Nominations

January 14th, 2016

The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either. More...

Home Market Numbers: Pixels Can't Take on Indominus Rex

December 3rd, 2015

There were five new releases for the week of October 20th that reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for November 1st. This includes three in the top five. However, none of them were able to top Jurassic World. The film remained in first place selling 867,000 units / $15.52 million for the week giving it running tallies of 3.17 million units / $69.97 million after two weeks of release. It was able to jump ahead of The Avengers: Age of Ultron and into fourth place on the yearly chart. More...

Home Market Releases for October 27th, 2015

October 26th, 2015

It's the week of double-dips, as there are five double-dips for films that would normally be Pick of the Week contenders, but only if you don't have them already. Army Of Darkness has been released so many times, it is hard to keep track of them all. Same with Monty Python and the Holy Grail. If you don't own either of these movies, you need to buy them. However, most fans will already have them. Because of this, I'm giving the Pick of the Week to Mad Men. I reviewed Season Seven, Part Two, but the Complete Series Megaset is the better deal. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Compton Makes the Competition Cry U.N.C.L.E.

August 18th, 2015

Straight Outta Compton destroyed expectations earning even more than the outlier prediction I saw. Sadly, our predictions for The Man From U.N.C.L.E. turned out to be too optimistic, but overall the box office was still very strong. In fact, it grew 12% from last week to $148 million. Growth like that almost never happens at this time of year. Compared to last year, the box office was also strong, albeit by a smaller 3.7% margin. That said, a win is a win and worth celebrating, especially after a couple of strong declines. Year-to-date, 2015 maintains a strong lead over 2014 at $7.09 billion to $6.73 billion. A 5.4% lead year-over-year is a great margin for this time of year and it would take a really serious collapse to put that lead at risk. I don't think that's going to happen. In fact, there are three potential $1 billion hits yet to open in theaters, which is actually better than it was last year. Add in the number of potential $100 million hits and the lead could grow through till the end of the year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Compton Go Straight to the Top?

August 14th, 2015

It appears summer is over, but a strong showing from Straight Outta Compton and The Man From U.N.C.L.E. could mitigate that decline. Both are earning good reviews, which is unusual for this time of year. On the other hand, it is late in August, so neither are expected to be monster hits. Straight Outta Compton has a chance to turn its amazing reviews into long legs, so it could be a surprise $100 million hit. Even so, it won't open explosively. This weekend last year, the best new release was Let's Be Cops, which only managed $17.81 million. I think both new releases will top that by a serious margin. However, the best results from this weekend last year were Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy. I think 2014 has an advantage over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison, but I think things will be closer than they were the past two weeks. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Mission Still Fantastic, Four Flops

August 11th, 2015

Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either. More...

Weekend Estimates: Fantastic Four Falls Flat

August 9th, 2015

The Summer Season has come to an abrupt end this weekend, with Fantastic Four busting out with only $26.2 million, according to Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s about half of what one would expect for a superhero movie in this budget range, even taking into account the fact that it’s the first in a potential franchise (see here for some comparisons), and a final box office total of less than $80 million seems in prospect, which is nothing short of a disaster: the film is likely not to even cover its marketing budget. More...

Friday Estimates: Far From Fantastic

August 8th, 2015

I was significantly less optimistic than most box office analysts were when it came to the weekend predictions. While most predicted Fantastic Four would earn just over $40 million over the weekend, I assumed the film will struggle so much that it was just a matter of time before it was given back to Marvel Studios. Despite my pessimism, I appear to have been too optimistic. More...

Weekend Predictions: How Long till Marvel Gets the Fantastic Four Back?

August 7th, 2015

There could be a close race on top of the box office chart with Fantastic Four trying to unseat Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation as box office champion. This should be the number one story of the weekend; however, if I'm right and Fantastic Four does as poorly as I think it will, then the franchise will be in the hands of Marvel Studios by the end of the weekend. None of the other three wide releases are guaranteed to top $10 million over the weekend. In fact, it is very likely that one of them, Shaun of the Sheep, will miss the top five. This weekend last year was led by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles with $65.58 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was second with $42.12 million. I don't think any film opening this weekend will match Guardians of the Galaxy, while there's a chance all four combined won't match TMNT. 2015 is going to take a beating on the year-over-year comparison. More...

2015 Preview: August

August 1st, 2015

It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...