Weekend Estimates: Frozen Falls, Still Set to Top Predecessor

December 8, 2019

Frozen II

Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets.

Knives Out is earning an estimated $14.15 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $63.49 million. Lionsgate’s share of the domestic box office is very close to its $40 million production budget and, while the movie won’t match that figure internationally, it will do well enough to break even before it reaches the home market.

Ford v Ferrari and Queen and Slim have near identical estimates of $6.54 million and $6.53 million respectively. For the former, this is enough to keep it on pace for $100 million domestically. For the latter, it is enough to keep it in theaters until Christmas.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is falling a little faster than anticipated with an estimated $5.2 million over the weekend for a running tally of $43.1 million after three. It will become a midlevel hit, but unless it gains some serious momentum going into awards season, it won’t match original expectations.

Dark Waters is opening in sixth place with $4.1 million in 2,012 theaters over the weekend for a total of $5.3 million including its limited release. Its theater average is right on the edge of the Mendoza Line, which means its stellar reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are not going to be able to boost its legs before theater owners decide to drop it.

And then there’s Playmobil. This film will miss the top ten by a huge margin and currently sits in 14th place with $670,000. That’s just behind Parasite and just ahead of Jojo Rabbit. The film’s reviews are terrible, as is its B minus from CinemaScore, at least compared to the CinemaScores earned by most family films, so it won’t have legs to make up for this opening either. In fact, it could be all but gone from theaters by Christmas.

Jumanji: The Next Level doesn’t open until Friday, but it started its international run this weekend with $52.5 million on 30,400 screens in 18 markets. This includes a $25.3-million debut in China, which is significantly lower than the $39.97 million Welcome to the Jungle earned during its first weekend of wide release in that market. On the other hand, this movie nearly doubled its predecessor’s debut in France with $5.7 million. It is still too early to tell how it film will do worldwide, but I’m cautiously optimistic with these results so far.

To end on a positive note, Portrait of a Lady on Fire is earning an estimated theater average of $33,553 in two theaters. This, combined with its award-worthy reviews, strongly suggests potential to expand. It is a foreign-language film, so it won’t expand truly wide, but if it earns more Oscar buzz, it could earn at least some measure of mainstream success.

- Weekend Estimates
- Weekend Predictions
- Friday Estimates

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Frozen II, PLAYMOBIL, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Jumanji: The Next Level, Jojo Rabbit, Ford v. Ferrari, Joker, Queen & Slim, Dark Waters, Knives Out, Parasite (기생충), Portrait de la jeune fille en feu