Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like it will be a Serene Weekend

January 25, 2019

The Kid Who Would Be King

The weekend after a long weekend is rarely a good weekend to release a movie and there are only two films attempting this challenge this week. The Kid Who Would Be King is a live-action family film and those rarely do well at the box office. Serenity is... a movie... that... If what I read about the film’s surprise twist is correct, then this film could earn a D or worse from CinemaScore. Glass will remain at the top of the box office, unless something truly strange happens. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019.

Glass is a sequel, and those tend to have short legs. Its reviews and its CinemaScore suggest weak word-of-mouth, which also tends to result in short legs. Finally, this is the weekend after a long weekend. On the positive side, there’s no direct competition. The film could fall more than 60% at the box office to just $15 million over the weekend. Even so, that would still likely be enough to repeat at the top of the box office. More likely, the film will avoid that fate earning $17 million during its second weekend of release keeping it on pace for $100 million domestically.

I think The Kid Who Would Be King will earn second place, but it will likely be really close. The film’s reviews are 85% positive, but its average score is just 6.8 out of 10, so while most critics like the movie, few love it. This is just fine for a family film. There’s not a lot of direct competition, so that should help. On the other hand, live-action family films usually struggle at the box office and there’s a real chance this will open in third place with under $10 million. I’m a little more optimistic, but even so, I’m only predicting second place with $11 million.

The Upside will be right behind with $10 million over the weekend for a three-week total of over $60 million.

Aquaman should earn $6 million over the weekend. The film is such a massive hit that there’s little more than needs to be said at this point.

Serenity should round out the top five with just under $6 million, hopefully. The film is being released by a newer and smaller distributor, one that has not had a lot of success. Additionally, its reviews could scare away potential moviegoers and it has a twist that I think could piss off a lot of people who will see the movie. It could miss the Mendoza Line and if it does, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse should be there to grab fifth place.

- The Kid Who Would Be King Comparisons
- Serenity Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Aquaman, Glass, The Kid Who Would Be King, The Upside, Serenity