Friday Estimates: A Quiet Place has Deafening Opening with $19 million
April 7, 2018
There are people at Paramount Pictures walking around with confused looks on their faces. They don’t know what to do, because it has been so long since they have had an unqualified box office hit like this. A Quiet Place earned $19 million on Friday, which is well above expectations and more than it cost to make. Its reviews are 97% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, which is amazing for a horror film. Granted, horror films still tend to be front-loaded, but an opening weekend of close to $50 million is possible. Being a little more conservative is probably a good idea, so let’s go with $47 million. We would have to go back to 2016's Arrival to find the last time Paramount had a film that was an unqualified box office hit. That film likely broke even early in its home market run. A Quiet Place will likely break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers.
Blockers opened in second place on Friday, but it won’t stay there for long. It earned $7.81 million on Friday and that will likely be enough to barely hit $20 million over the weekend. A $20 million opening weekend is amazing for a film that cost $21 million to make and it is more than enough to be considered a midlevel hit. Additionally, its reviews are 83% positive, which should draw in new moviegoers. On the other hand, it only manged a B from CinemaScore. That’s merely okay and isn't going to help its legs. The film will likely struggle to find an audience internationally, as R-rated comedies rarely do well, since the genre doesn’t translate well into other cultures. That said, with a start like this, it will likely break even sometime during its home market run, even without finding an audience internationally.
Ready Player One slipped to third place with $6.5 million on Friday. This is 57% lower than its opening Friday. It will bounce back over the rest of the weekend, but not by as much as most sophomore films manage, as it opened on the Thursday. It will still rise to second place with $21 million over the weekend and it will have no trouble getting to $100 million, likely before next weekend.
Chappaquiddick bounced back after disappointing previews earning $1.9 million on Friday. It has earned 79% positive reviews, but only a B from CinemaScore. Its opening weekend should be closer to $6 million than $5 million, which is already better than predictions, but this is far from a great start. On the other hand, it does mean theater owners won’t be looking to drop the film as soon as they are contractually able to.
The Miracle Season is not as lucky with $1.4 million on Friday while it will earn just $4 million over the weekend. This is a little better than our prediction and just enough to avoid the Mendoza Line, but that’s damning it with faint praise. Its reviews are the worst of the new releases at 36% positive, but it did earn an A from CinemaScore. Clearly it is connecting with its target audience, and no one else.
One last note: Black Panther will overtake Titanic to become the third biggest hit on the All-time Domestic Chart. It is currently just $102,000 behind after earning $2.34 million on Friday.
- A Quiet Place Comparisons
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- Blockers Comparisons
- Chappaquiddick Comparisons
- The Miracle Season Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Black Panther, Ready Player One, Blockers, Chappaquiddick, A Quiet Place, The Miracle Season