2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Director
March 1, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director, which I think is a more competitive category than most people think it will be.
(Note: All previous awards listed are only for directing and not other categories.)
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk
Jordan Peele for Get Out
Conclusion: Most people think Guillermo del Toro has about a 90% chance of winning this Oscar. However, I think it’s closer to 70% with Jordan Peele having a 25% chance of winning. Guillermo del Toro is still the favorite, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Jordan Peele scores the upset.
Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread
Tomatometer Score: 91% Positive
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Film: None
Director's Previous Major Wins, Film: None
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Career: One Oscar, One BAFTA, One Independent Spirit Award, and One DGA
Director's Previous Major Wins, Career: None
Notes: Paul Thomas Anderson has earned eight Oscar nominations with no wins. However, most of his past nominations are for writing and only two of them are for directing. I assume he will win an Oscar in his career, but it won’t be this Oscar.
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Film: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and DGA
Director's Previous Major Wins, Film: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and DGA
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Career: None
Director's Previous Major Wins, Career: None
Notes: Like with Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro has earned a lot of previous nominations, but mostly for writing. Where the two directors differ this year, is Guillermo del Toro was nominated for every major award the film was eligible for and has won all three of these awards. I do think he’s the favorite to win here, but I don’t think he’s as big a favorite as most think he is.
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Film: DGA
Director's Previous Major Wins, Film: None
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Career: None
Director's Previous Major Wins, Career: None
Notes: This is technically not Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut, as she co-directed a movie nearly a decade ago. She has earned a lot of major award nominations for this film, but mostly for the script. ... This is becoming a pattern. With no major wins, it is unlikely that she will pick up the Oscar. That said, given this film’s reviews and its box office success in limited release, there’s almost no chance she won’t get another chance at Oscar glory later in her career.
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Film: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and DGA
Director's Previous Major Wins, Film: None
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Career: One Golden Globe, One BAFTA, One Independent Spirit Award, and Three DGAs
Director's Previous Major Wins, Career: One Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: Say it with me, “Throughout his career, Christopher Nolan has earned a lot of Awards Season recognition, but mostly for writing.” I’m surprised this film isn’t earning more Oscar buzz, as it is a World War II movie and Oscar voters still love those films. However, it is a massive long shot to win this award. It should pick up an Oscar or two in the technical categories.
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Film: Independent Spirit Awards and Two DGAs
Director's Previous Major Wins, Film: DGA (One Pending)
Director's Previous Major Nominations, Career: First Film
Director's Previous Major Wins, Career: First Film
Notes: Jordan Peele is the only director on this list who hasn’t received more past nominations for his writing, mainly because this is the first film he wrote and directed. I think he has a chance to win this award, maybe a one in four chance, which is still a lot more than most people are giving him.
Filed under: Awards Season, Dunkirk, Get Out, The Shape of Water, Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Christopher Nolan, Jordan Peele