Friday Estimates: Sinister Starts Strong, but Can't Save Summer
August 22, 2015
As expected, Sinister 2 was the best of the new releases, earning $4.7 million on Friday. This is “strong” in the loosest sense of the word. The horror sequel had an opening day that was 37% lower than the first film’s and it is only going to get worse. Sequels tend to be more front-loaded than original films and the reviews will scare away moviegoers for the rest of the weekend. Worst case scenario has the film earning less than $10 million this weekend and even the best case scenario is just $12 million. The lower end seems more likely, so look for between $10 million and $11 million over the full weekend. This is more than it cost to make, on the other hand, so the studio might still recoup its total budget sometime on the home market.
Hitman: Agent 47 matched expectations, for the most part, with $3.085 million during its opening day. It’s a sequel / reboot, and its reviews are simply awful, so I doubt it will have strong legs. On Friday I predicted $8 million and I’m sticking with that number, more or less. If on Monday it is barely over $7 million, I won’t be surprised.
American Ultra has the best reviews of the three new releases, but it also had the weakest opening day at just $2.1 million. That is low enough that missing the Mendoza Line isn’t out of the question. It would need $5.6 million to avoid that fate, which might be asking too much. Even if it does top $2,000 per theater, it will be marginal.
On the positive side, Straight Outta Compton did as well as expected, down 66% from last Friday to $8.3 million. Fortunately, opening weekends are the most front-loaded weekend of a film’s run, so it will bounce back on Saturday and finish the weekend with about $25 million. It will also hit $100 million on Saturday, giving Universal yet another reason to celebrate.
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Hitman: Agent 47, Straight Outta Compton, Sinister 2, American Ultra