Scary Time Picking a Winner

October 24, 2003

Three movies are opening wide this week, but none of them are opening to rave reviews. And while the most likely number one movie won’t suffer due to poor reviews, the other two will mostly like suffer.

The third movie in the Scary Movie trilogy opens today with much less fanfare than the other two, but in a huge number of theatres. Reviews for Scary Movie 3 are almost exactly between the first two movies, and so should the box office. $31 million this weekend, with an outside shot at $100 million.

It has been a while since Cuba Gooding Jr. made a really high quality movie but Radio was supposed to break that streak. This movie has, ‘for your Oscar consideration written’ all over it. However, with the reviews currently sitting at just 35% positive, (and even lower for the cream of the crop.) he will have to wait for his slump to end. Financially, the movie is in better shape with a budget of only $35 million. With an opening weekend of $14 million, it should show a profit by the home market.

Given the hype and the genre, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre will drop a lot this weekend. Dropping down nearly 60% down to $13 million and third place. Even with the fast drop, the low costs will mean this film is close to a profit already.

There will be a virtual tie for fourth place with both Mystic River and Kill Bill: Volume 1 making roughly $8 million. Mystic River has the slight edge for top spot, but it won’t win by much.

The last new movie opening this weekend is Beyond Borders. It not only has the weakest reviews at just 16% positive, but the lowest theatre count at just 1798. Because of this, expect an opening weekend of just $5 million before quickly exiting out of theatres.


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Filed under: Scary Movie 3, Mystic River, The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, Kill Bill: Volume 1, Radio, Beyond Borders