Guessing Which Movie will be Fabulous

March 24, 2005

It's been a while since there was a wide release that received overwhelmingly positive reviews, and this weekend the streak continues as neither of the wide releases managed even 50% positive. Even so, both should battle for top spot as last week's champion looks like it will tumble this weekend.

For the second weekend in a row a sequel should snag top spot. This time it's Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous. The original was released more than four years ago and the star, Sandra Bullock hasn't had a movie out for more than 2 years. The original was a surprise hit, starting out slowly before hitting $100 million. This movie could double the original's opening, but won't have nearly the same legs. The short legs will be partially due to the sequel effect, but mostly due to the fact that it's not a good movie. Look for $6 million tonight, $22 million over the weekend and $70 million overall.

Remakes have been in a slump since Cheaper by the Dozen. Since that time 14 remakes have been released, but only one of them has been a bona fide success and half of them have been bombs. While I don't think Guess Who will bomb, there's a lot going against this film's chances of being a huge hit as well. Firstly, its reviews are merely mediocre, falling just below 50% at the moment. Secondly, neither star has an impressive track record when it comes to starring roles. hasn't starred in a film that's been able to crack $60 million (his best box office came in the aforementioned ensemble film, Cheaper by the Dozen). Bernie Mac first starring role was in the box office disappointment, Mr.3000. All in all, the film is likely to fit nicely in the middle range of recent remakes with a $20 million opening and a $60 million final box office.

Even with weaker than expected competition this weekend, The Ring 2 is likely to tumble out of top spot, falling an extreme amount on the way down. The reason for this is simple, it scored a trifecta for bad legs, reviews, horror genre and sequel. How far will it fall? Well, 50% is almost a guarantee, and more than 60% would not be shocking. I'm going to go with just shy of 60% at $14.5 million, which would push its total box office to $56 million.

Robots started out weaker than expected and fell even faster, but out of all the films in the top five, this one should benefit the most from the Easter holiday. This should help its drop-off shallow off, leaving the film with $13 million this weekend and putting it on pace to reach $100 million, after a small push by the studio that is.

Rounding out the top five will be the most inexplicable hit of the year, The Pacifier. This week the film should add another $8 million to its box office, which also could end up north of $100 million by the time its domestic run is over.


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Filed under: Robots, The Pacifier, The Ring Two, Guess Who, Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous